Valparaiso vs Missouri State Prediction College Basketball Picks 1/1/25

The Valparaiso Beacons are visiting the Missouri State Bears on Wednesday, January 1st at the Great Southern Bank Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Valparaiso Beacons vs Missouri State Bears Prediction.

Missouri State Bears Preview

The Missouri State Bears have a 7-6 record this season and are sitting in the third to last place of the Missouri Valley. The Bears are 7-4 against the spread, and 4-7 in over/under, while having a 5-1 home record. Missouri State is 2-3 in their last 5 games and is 1-3 against the spread in their last 4. Under is 4-2 in their last 6 games.

The Bears are coming off a 40-57 loss to Evansville, as they shot with just 26% from the field and 20% from beyond the arc. Dez White led Missouri State’s offense with 12 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists.  

Offensively, Missouri State is averaging 72.3 points per game, which ranks 261st in the nation. Defensively, they allow 70.7 points per game (169th). The Bears shoot 43.3% from the field (263rd), and 36% from beyond the arc (91st). The Bears shoot 68.6% from the free-throw line (268th) and are grabbing 36.2 rebounds per game (201st).

Dez White leads Missouri State in scoring this season, with an average of 17.8 points and 3.1 rebounds, while Vincent Brady adds 12.8 points and 5.3 rebounds.

Valparaiso Beacons Preview

The Valparaiso Beacons have a 7-6 record this season and are sitting in second to last place in the Missouri Valley. The Beacons are 6-5 against the spread, and 6-5 in over/under while having a 1-3 road record. Valparaiso is 2-1 in their last 3 games and 4-1 against the spread in their last 5. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 games.

Valparaiso is coming off a 75-81 loss to Bradley, as they shot with just 34% from the field and 29% from downtown. Cooper Schwieger led Valparaiso’s offense with 21 points and 6 rebounds.  

Offensively, Valparaiso is averaging 80 points per game, which ranks 86th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 72.4 points per game (218th). The Beacons shoot 43.6% from the field (255th) and 33.7% from beyond the arc (190th). The Beacons shoot 79.9% from the free-throw line, which is the 13th-best in the nation, and are grabbing 38.2 rebounds per game (104th).

Cooper Schwieger leads Valparaiso in scoring with an average of 13.6 points and a team-high 7.5 rebounds, while Jefferson Monegro adds 12.6 points.

Why the Missouri State Bears will win

• Valparaiso has lost each of its last 15 night games against the Missouri Valley Conference.
• Missouri State has won each of its last nine games against Valparaiso.
• Valparaiso has lost the first half in 14 of its last 15 night games against the Missouri Valley Conference.

Why the Valparaiso Beacons will win

• Missouri State has lost each of its last five night games against the Missouri Valley Conference.
• Missouri State has lost the first half in four of its last five night games against the Missouri Valley Conference at Great Southern Bank Arena.

Valparaiso Beacons vs Missouri State Bears Prediction

Missouri State has won their last nine meetings against Valparaiso, but Valparaiso is 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 meetings. Over is 3-0 in their last 3 meetings and in their most recent meeting last season, Missouri State won 82-74 at home. In this Valparaiso Beacons vs Missouri State Bears Prediction, Missouri State is coming as a -4 home favorite. Valparaiso is better offensively, scoring 7.7 points more than Missouri State, while Missouri State is better defensively, allowing 1.7 points less. The Beacons are winning by an average of 7.6 points this season, while the Bears are winning by 1.6 points. The Bears have been very good at home, but they haven’t been covering spreads lately, on the other hand, the Beacons are very good against the spread lately, and I totally expect them to cover once again in this game. Take the Valparaiso Beacons and lay the points on the road.