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Troy vs Kentucky Prediction 3/21/25 College Basketball Picks
Pick details
Kentucky (22-11) vs Troy (23-10)
March 21, 2025 at 07:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Kentucky -11.5 — Over/Under: 151.5
The Troy Trojans and Kentucky Wildcats meet Friday in the college basketball First Round at the Fiserv Forum. Here’s a Troy vs Kentucky Prediction. This article will include a Troy vs Kentucky Pick.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
The Troy Trojans are coming off wins over Old Dominion, James Madison, and Arkansas State. Troy is riding a six-game winning streak.
The Troy Trojans are averaging 73.9 points on 43.8 percent shooting and allowing 65.4 points on 40.3 percent shooting. Tayton Conerway is averaging 14.3 points and 4.8 assists, while Myles Rigsby is averaging 12 points and 4 rebounds. Thomas Dowd is dishing 1 assist and Jackson Fields is grabbing 4.7 rebounds. The Troy Trojans are shooting 29.9 percent from beyond the arc and 72 percent from the free throw line. The Troy Trojans are allowing 32.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.9 rebounds per game.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview
The Kentucky Wildcats recently played Auburn, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Alabama. Kentucky has won seven of its last 11 games, and hasn’t lost two straight games since February 1-4.
The Kentucky Wildcats are averaging 85.3 points on 48.2 percent shooting and allowing 77.9 points on 43.7 percent shooting. Otega Oweh is averaging 16.2 points and 4.6 rebounds, while Jaxson Robinson is averaging 13 points and 3.5 rebounds. Lamont Butler is the third double-digit scorer and Koby Brea is dishing 1.3 assists. The Kentucky Wildcats are shooting 37.4 percent from beyond the arc and 73.8 percent from the free throw line. The Kentucky Wildcats are allowing 30.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.5 rebounds per game.
Why the Kentucky Wildcats will win
- Troy has lost each of its last 11 night games against the Southeastern Conference.
- Kentucky has won each of its last 30 Friday night games against non-Conference opponents.
Why the Troy Trojans will win
- Troy has won eight of its last nine games.
- Kentucky has lost three of its last four NCAA Tournament games against a lower seed.
- Troy has won the first half in 20 of its last 26 night games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Troy’s last eight night games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 150 or fewer points.
- Eight of Kentucky’s last nine games have produced a total of 159+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Kentucky ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for offensive rating this season (123.8).
- Kentucky ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for defensive rating this season (111.1).
- Troy ranks 25th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal percentage this season (40.3%).
- Troy ranks 26th among Division 1 teams for blocks per game this season (4.8).
Troy vs Kentucky Injury Report
Troy doesn’t have a player listed on its injury report. Kentucky will be without Kerr Kriisa due to a foot injury.
Troy vs Kentucky Prediction
Kentucky has the ability to blow the doors off given the talent gap, but we’ve seen the youth get tight in early tournament games. It’s led to early exits in the past for Kentucky. Troy has been elite defensively over the last month and has an underappreciated coach in Scott Cross. Conerway is also one of the better players the public probably has never heard of and he’s more than capable of taking over games. The senior guard who does everything offensively and can force turnovers on defense, he’ll keep Troy in this game. If somebody comes with him, this game could get hairy for the Wildcats. I want the points with Troy in this first round matchup.
