Tarleton vs Abilene Christian Prediction 3/11/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Nov 14, 2025; Waco, Texas, USA; Tarleton State Texans guard Dior Johnson (7) attempts a layup ahead of Baylor Bears guard Tounde Yessoufou (24) during the first half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Tarleton Texans
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Team Records
14-17
13-18
Spread
-2.5 -102
+2.5 -118
Moneyline
-142
+120
Total
Over 135.5 (-105)
Under 135.5 (-115)
Where
Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
When
Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Time
08:30 PM EDT
TV
ESPN+
The Tarleton Texans and the Abilene Christian Wildcats meet Wednesday in college basketball action from the Orleans Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tarleton Texans vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats prediction.
Tarleton Texans Recap
The Tarleton Texans come into this game as the 7-seed, finishing the year with a 14-17 overall record including a 5-13 mark in WAC conference play.
Texans Looking To Even Up Season Series
Dior Johnson leads the Texans in scoring with 23.6 PPG while Cam McDowell has 13.9 PPG with 3.3 RPG as the only other double-digit scorer for Tarleton so far this season. Freddy Hicks has 9.7 PPG with team-highs of 5.7 RPG and 2.2 APG as well this year. Chris Mpaka has 8.1 PPG with 5.3 RPG as well on the year. As a team, Tarleton is averaging 75.7 PPG on 45.5% shooting from the field, 31.7% from three and 75.5% from the foul line this season.
Abilene Christian Wildcats Recap
The Abilene Christian Wildcats come into this game as the 6-seed, finishing the year with a record of 13-18 including a 5-13 mark in WAC conference play.
Wildcats Looking To Secure Season Series Win
Bradyn Hubbard leads the Wildcats in scoring with 15.8 PPG along with 4.7 RPG as the only double-digit scorer for Abilene Christian so far this season. Yaniel Rivera has 7.3 PPG with 2.4 APG and Cbo Newton has 9.2 PPG with 2.2 RPG while Rich Smith has 9.5 PPG with 3.9 RPG and a team-high 4.8 APG to lead the Wildcats in assists. As a team, Abilene Christian is averaging 70.4 PPG on 43.7% shooting from the field, 33.1% from three and 70.6% from the foul line so far this season.
Tarleton State Texans @ Abilene Christian Wildcats Betting Trends: March 11, 2026
Why the Abilene Christian Wildcats will win
Tarleton State has lost each of its last four games.
Tarleton State has lost the first half in five of its last six night games.
Why the Tarleton State Texans will win
Abilene Christian has lost eight of its last nine night games.
Abilene Christian has lost the first half in each of its last eight Wednesday games against Conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
Each of Abilene Christian’s last four Conference Tournament games have produced a total of 132 or fewer points.
Four of Tarleton State’s last five games have produced a total of 149+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
Abilene Christian ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent assist to turnover ratio this season (0.70).
Abilene Christian ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (15.2).
Tarleton State ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (17.6).
Tarleton State ranks 365th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (14.3).
Tarleton Texans vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats Prediction
I’m on Tarleton here. I think the Texans are just the better team here, and I think the Texans nip Abilene here to even up the season series between the two. The Texans should get the win and cover here so I’ll side with the Texans in this one.
