SMU vs Mississippi State Prediction 11/28/2025 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The SMU Mustangs and the Mississippi State Bulldogs meet Friday in college basketball action from Humphrey Coliseum. Here’s an SMU vs Mississippi State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best SMU vs Mississippi State pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

The Mustangs have been on quite a roll so far this year. They’ve got seven games in the bag and have yet to record a blemish in the record column. SMU opened with wins over Tarleton State, Texas A&M-CC and Murray State in their first three games. The next trio were victories versus Butler, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Arkansas State. In their most recent outing the Mustangs took out Radford, giving the team a perfect 7-0 run thus far this season.

In the Radford game on Monday, the Mustangs went into the break with an eight-point lead. SMU kept cooking on a 43-34 run in the second half and took the win 89-72. Topping the scorers on a double-double was Kevin Miller with 25 points and 10 assists. Corey Washington also had a double-double with 21 points and 12 boards, as did Jaron Pierre on 15 points and 13 rebounds over 35 minutes in the winning effort for the Mustangs.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

Over on the Bulldogs’ side, they’ve gotten through a half-dozen games so far this year and have only mustered a .500 record overall. Mississippi State was 2-1 in their first trio with wins over North Alabama and SE Louisiana sandwiched around a loss to Iowa State. Since then it’s been a 1-2 run with losses to Kansas State and New Mexico preceding an overtime win versus New Orleans. That gives the Bulldogs a 3-3 run over their first six games of the year.

Matched up against New Orleans in the Monday game, the Bulldogs came out of the break with a six-point deficit. Mississippi State caught up on a 40-34 run and forced overtime, eventually winning a tight one 81-78. Topping the scorers was Josh Hubbard with 28 points, six rebounds and five assists. Amier Ali had 16 points with five boards and Ja’Borri McGhee had 16 points with five assists and two rebounds in the win.

SMU Mustangs @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Trends: November 28, 2025

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Mississippi State has won each of its last 11 games against non-Conference opponents at Humphrey Coliseum.
• SMU has lost six of its last seven night games against the Southeastern Conference.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won each of its last 10 night games against non-Conference opponents.
• Mississippi State has lost four of its last five games after coming off overtime.
• Mississippi State has lost the first half in each of its last four night games against non-Conference opponents.

SMU vs Mississippi State Prediction

I’ll lean toward SMU. The Mustangs are looking good this year and coming off another dominant win. SMU shot 45.8 percent from the field in their victory versus Radford, with 25-of-32 (78.1 percent) from the line and a 46-30 advantage on the boards. The only real gripe was the 15 turnovers, but they didn’t end up mattering much. SMU has a nice 69 points or more in every game this year, with 87 or more in six of seven.

As for Mississippi State, they had a bad first half against a middling New Orleans team in their last game. To the Bulldogs’ credit though, they ended up gathering themselves for the win. There’s plenty to clean up though, namely the 14 turnovers, the 40-38 rebounding deficit and the 15-of-29 (51.7 percent) effort from the free throw line. Mississippi State is scoring well this year themselves, but they’re going to have to work hard on defense in order to slow down the Mustangs.

Andrew Jett's Pick: SMU Mustangs -1.5