| MATCHUP | SMU Mustangs | California Golden Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 19-8 | 19-8 |
| Spread | -4.5 -108 | +4.5 -112 |
| Moneyline | -205 | +170 |
| Total | Over 161.5 (-112) | Under 161.5 (-108) |
| Where | Haas Pavilion, Berkeley, CA | |
| When | Wednesday, February 25, 2026 | |
| Time | 10:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ACC Network | |
The SMU Mustangs and Cal Golden Bears meet Wednesday in college basketball action at the PeoplesBank Arena. Here’s an SMU vs. California Prediction. This article will include an SMU vs. California pick.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
The SMU Mustangs beat Louisville and Boston College, and they play Stanford next. SMU has won 4 of its last 5 games.
The SMU Mustangs are averaging 86.9 points on 50 percent shooting and allowing 77.6 points on 43 percent shooting. Boopie Miller is averaging 18.7 points and 3.6 rebounds, while Jaron Pierre Jr. is averaging 17.6 points and 1.9 assists. BJ Edwards is the third double-digit scorer, and Corey Washington is grabbing 4.9 rebounds. The SMU Mustangs are shooting 37.9 percent from beyond the arc and 76.1 percent from the free throw line. The SMU Mustangs are allowing 33 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.4 rebounds per game.
Cal Golden Bears Betting Preview
The Cal Golden Bears beat Boston College and Stanford, and they play Pitt next. Cal has won 6 of its last 9 games.
The Cal Golden Bears are averaging 78.7 points on 44.6 percent shooting and allowing 72.7 points on 42.8 percent shooting. Dai Dai Ames is averaging 17.1 points and 1.9 rebounds, while Justin Pippen is averaging 14.6 points and 4.4 assists. John Camden is the third double-digit scorer, and Chris Bell is grabbing 2.7 rebounds. The Cal Golden Bears are shooting 37.6 percent from beyond the arc and 78.4 percent from the free throw line. The Cal Golden Bears are allowing 30.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 31.1 rebounds per game.
Why the California Golden Bears will win
- California has won each of its last 15 games at Haas Pavilion against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- SMU has lost each of its last three road games following a home win.
Why the SMU Mustangs will win
- California has lost each of its last eight Wednesday night games against conference opponents.
- SMU has won 17 of its last 21 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- California has lost the first half in seven of its last eight night games against the Atlantic Coast Conference.
Total Points: Facts
- Fourteen of California’s last 15 night games against conference opponents have produced a total of 160 or fewer points.
- Each of SMU’s last four night games against conference opponents has produced a total of 167+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- California ranks T17th among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (5.0).
- California ranks 30th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point percentage this season (30.5%).
- SMU ranks 14th among Division 1 teams for points per game this season (86.8).
- SMU ranks 17th among Division 1 teams for field goal percentage this season (50.0%).
SMU vs California Prediction
SMU is probably the more talented team, but the bottom line is these are two middle-of-the-road ACC teams. SMU is making a bit of a hike for this contest, and Cal has defended home court well this season. While SMU is 13-14 ATS on the season, Cal is profitable with a 14-12 ATS record. Also, Cal is far and away the better defensive team and could make this one ugly and physical. It feels like SMU is getting too much respect with this line, and I’m just not there with the Mustangs. Give me the points with Cal at home.