Illinois (19-11) vs Purdue (21-9)
Game Info: Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:00 pm (State Farm Center)
The Line: Betting Odds: Illinois -3.5 — Over/Under: 159.5
The Purdue Boilermakers and Illinois Fighting Illini meet on Friday in college basketball action at State Farm Center. Here’s a Purdue vs Illinois prediction. This article will include a Purdue vs Illinois Pick.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview
The Purdue Boilermakers (21-9, 17-13 ATS) endured their toughest stretch of the season during which they suffered four consecutive defeats. Three of those losses came on teh road and were against the top 25 ranked teams, but Purdue did respond with a pair of home victories over UCLA and Rutgers. The Boilermakers are 5th in the Big Ten Standings with the same record as Maryland and Wisconsin, two games ahead of Illinois, and three behind the leaders Michigan State.
Purdue is averaging 78.2 PPG (78th) and is allowing 70.0 PPG (124th). The Boilermakers are getting 32.4 RPG (366th) and dish out 16.3 APG (42nd). Trey Kaufman-Renn is the team’s top scorer with 19.4 PPG, a team-high 6.1 RPG, and 2.3 APG. Braden Smith adds 16.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, a team-high 8.7 APG, and a team-high 2.4 SPG, while Fletcher Loyer contributes 14.1 PPG and 2.3 RPG.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
The Illinois Fighting Illini (19-11, 14-15-1 ATS) were also on their longest losing streak of the season as they lost three in a row, but defeats to Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Duke weren’t surprising. Illinois bounced back with a couple of wins over Iowa and Michigan, with the latter coming on the road and was an upset. The Fighting Illini are 8th in the Big Ten Standings with the same record as Oregon and five games behind the No. 1 seed Michigan State.
Illinois averages 83.6 PPG (12th) and allows 73.3 PPG (221st). The Fighting Illini are 3rd in rebounds (42.9) and 120th in assists (14.7). Kasparas Jakucionis leads the team with 15.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and a team-high 4.8 APG. Tomislav Ivisic follows him with 12.6 PPG, a team-high 7.7 RPG, 2.2 APG, and a team-high 1.1 BPG, while Will Riley has 11.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 2.2 APG.
Why Purdue will beat Illinois
- Purdue has won each of its last 10 Friday night games.
- Illinois has lost four of its last five games against AP-ranked opponents at State Farm Center.
Why Illinois will beat Purdue
- Illinois has won each of its last 14 Friday games at State Farm Center.
- Purdue has lost each of its last three road games against the Big Ten Conference.
- Purdue has lost the first half in four of its last five night games at State Farm Center against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of Purdue’s last 10 road games against the Big Ten Conference have produced a total of 151 or fewer points.
- Thirteen of Illinois’ last 15 night games against AP-ranked opponents at State Farm Center have produced a total of 155 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Illinois ranks 361st among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal attempts per game this season (65.4).
- Illinois ranks 358th among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (4.6).
- Purdue ranks 9th among Division 1 teams for a three-point percentage this season (38.9%).
- Purdue ranks 11th among Division 1 teams for effective field goal percentage this season (57.1%).
Purdue vs Illinois Prediction
Purdue won seven of the previous ten H2H duels and is on a five-game winning streak against Illinois. The Fighting Illini cannot move below the No. 8 seed in the conference, while the Boilermakers can go up to the No. 3 with a win and favorable results elsewhere. Although I believe the visitors should be more motivated to get a win here, I am going to avoid betting on the winner. Four of the last five H2Hs went Over, and given how these teams played offensively recently, I am going with another Over. Illinois has hit the Game Total Over in 22 of its last 38 games.