| MATCHUP | Pepperdine Waves | St. Mary's Gaels |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 6-19 | 21-4 |
| Spread | +24.5 -115 | -24.5 -105 |
| Moneyline | +3000 | -10000 |
| Total | Over 141.5 (-112) | Under 141.5 (-108) |
| Where | University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA | |
| When | Wednesday, February 11, 2026 | |
| Time | 10:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
In this article, we will formulate a Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s Prediction for this college basketball game on Wednesday, February 11th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this college basketball matchup.
Saint Mary’s Gaels Preview
The Saint Mary’s Gaels have a 21-4 overall record this season and a 10-2 record in the WCC. They are coming off a 79-54 home win against San Francisco and their previous four games were an 87-60 home win against San Diego, a 73-65 road loss against Gonzaga, a 75-69 road win against Portland and an 81-51 home win against Oregon State.
Offensively, Saint Mary’s averages 78.4 points per game, while allowing 64.2 points per game defensively. The Gaels shoot with 46% from the field and grab 39.8 rebounds per game, while dishing out 15.5 assists per game. They average 3.3 blocks per game and 5.6 steals per game defensively.
Paulius Murauskas leads Saint Mary’s in scoring, with an average of 18.8 points per game, while shooting with 47.8% from the field and 83.7% from the free throw line. Andrew McKeever is the team’s leading rebounder with 9.6 per game. Joshua Dent leads the team in assists made with 5.5 per game.
Pepperdine Waves Preview
The Pepperdine Waves have a 6-19 overall record this season and a 1-11 record in the WCC. They are coming off a 92-59 home loss against Pacific and their previous four games were an 83-81 road loss against Seattle, a 92-88 overtime home loss against San Diego, a 95-79 road loss against Washington State and an 84-60 road loss against Gonzaga.
Offensively, Pepperdine averages 70.3 points per game, while allowing 78.2 points per game defensively. The Waves shoot with 42% from the field and grab 33.4 rebounds per game, while dishing out 13.2 assists per game. They average 2.6 blocks per game and 5.8 steals per game defensively.
Aaron Clark leads Pepperdine in scoring, with an average of 13.7 points per game, while shooting with 41.7% from the field and 74.7% from the free throw line. Styles Phipps leads the team in rebounds and assists made with 6.1 rebounds per game and 4.7 assists per game.
Pepperdine Waves @ Saint Mary’s Gaels Betting Trends: February 11, 2026
Why the Saint Mary’s Gaels will win
- Saint Mary’s has won each of its last 36 night games at University Credit Union Pavilion against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Pepperdine has lost each of its last seven road games.
- Saint Mary’s has won the first half in each of its last 36 night games at University Credit Union Pavilion against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Pepperdine’s last seven road games have produced a total of 143+ points.
- Ten of the last 11 games between Pepperdine and Saint Mary’s have produced a total of 140 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Saint Mary’s ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for free throw percentage this season (81.4%).
- Saint Mary’s ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (57.8%).
- Pepperdine ranks 41st among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (16.9).
Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s Prediction
In this Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s Prediction, Saint Mary’s is coming as -24.5 home favorites. Saint Mary’s has been the far better team this season with a better overall record and have been undefeated at home. They are also much better against the spread with a 15-9 ATS record and are 8-2 in their last 10 games and 7-3 against the spread. On the flip side, Pepperdine has been struggling with a 1-9 record in their last 10 games and 3-5 against the spread, so I expect the hosts to dominate this game. Take Saint Mary’s and lay the big number at home.