Oklahoma State vs SMU Prediction 3/23/25 College Basketball Picks

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are facing the SMU Mustangs on Sunday, March 23rd at the Moody Coliseum, in this NIT Tournament second round matchup. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Oklahoma State Cowboys vs SMU Mustangs Prediction. We will examine:

The SMU Mustangs recent form and player performance

The Oklahoma State Cowboys recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the SMU Mustangs

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Oklahoma State Cowboys

Recent betting trends in games played between the Oklahoma State Cowboys vs SMU Mustangs

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Oklahoma State Cowboys vs SMU Mustangs game

SMU Mustangs Preview

The SMU Mustangs have a 24-10 record this season and were placed 6th in the Atlantic Coast. SMU is coming off a 73-63 win over Northern Iowa in the first round of the NIT. The Mustangs are 17-16-1 against the spread, and 17-17 in over/under, while having a 13-5 home record.

Offensively, SMU is averaging 79.8 points per game, which is 39th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 70.9 points per game (153rd). The Mustangs shoot with 48% from the field (31st), and with 37.3% from beyond the arc (27th). The Mustangs shoot with 71.9% from the free-throw line (189th), and are grabbing 34.8 rebounds per game (50th).

Kevin Miller leads SMU in scoring this season, with an average of 13.2 points, 2.9 rebounds and a team-high 5.5 assists, while Chuck Harris adds 12.8 points per game.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Preview

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have a 16-17 record this season and were placed 12th in the Big 12. The Cowboys are coming off am 89-79 win over Wichita State. The Cowboys are 15-18 against the spread, and 18-15 in over/under, while having a 2-10 road record.

Offensively, Oklahoma State is averaging 73.1 points per game, which ranks 217th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 76.6 points per game (303rd). The Cowboys shoot with 42.6% from the field (300th), and with 32.8% from beyond the arc (267th). The Cowboys shoot with 72.2% from the free throw line (175th), and are grabbing 31.1 rebounds per game (264th).

Bryce Thompson leads Oklahoma State in scoring this season, with an average of 12.2 points and 2.7 rebounds, while Abou Ousmane adds 12.2 points and a team-high 5.3 rebounds per game. 

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• Oklahoma State has lost each of its last eight road games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has won each of its last six games against non-Conference opponents.
• SMU has won the first half in each of its last 11 games against non-Conference opponents at Moody Coliseum (Dallas).

Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys will win

• SMU has lost each of its last four day games.
• Oklahoma State has won five of its last six games against non-Conference opponents.
• Oklahoma State has won the first half in 24 of its last 27 day games against non-Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Oklahoma State’s last eight road games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 154 or fewer points.
• Each of SMU’s last seven games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas) have produced a total of 152 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranks 21st among Division 1 teams for three-point percentage this season (38.0%).
• SMU ranks 26th among Division 1 teams for offensive rating this season (117.4).
• Oklahoma State ranks T14th among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (17.5).
• Oklahoma State ranks 14th among Division 1 teams for free throw attempts per game this season (24.0).

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs SMU Mustangs Prediction

In their only previous meeting back in 2011, SMU won 68-58 at home, not covering the spread.

In this Oklahoma State Cowboys vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, SMU is coming as -9.5-point favorites. SMU is rightfully favored, as they have a far better record this season, and are very good at home, while Oklahoma State is terrible on the road. Both teams have been very unstable lately, as SMU is 5-5 in their last 10 games but have won three straight home games. Oklahoma State is 4-6 in their last 10 games, and are 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 road games.

Given both teams’ recent form, I don’t see value with SMU being almost double-digit favorites, as I expect Oklahoma State to keep this one definitely closer. The value here lies with the road dog, so take the Oklahoma State Cowboys and get the +9.5 points in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys +9.5