Northern Iowa vs SMU Prediction 3/19/25 College Basketball Picks

The Northern Iowa Panthers and the SMU Mustangs meet Wednesday in NIT college basketball action from SMU Moody Coliseum. Here’s a Northern Iowa vs SMU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Northern Iowa vs SMU pick. We will examine: 

The Northern Iowa Panthers recent form and player performance

The SMU Mustangs recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Northern Iowa Panthers

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the SMU Mustangs

Recent betting trends in games played between Northern Iowa and SMU

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Northern Iowa vs SMU game

Northern Iowa Panthers Betting Preview

Northern Iowa has been pretty good record-wise overall this year, but they’ve faltered quite a bit lately. The Panthers kicked things off on a 9-5 run before taking consecutive losses to Valparaiso and Murray State. A 4-2 run came next with wins over Illinois State, Evansville, Missouri State and Indiana State among losses to Southern Illinois and Drake. Wins over Bradley, Missouri State, Illinois State, Indiana State, Murray State and Belmont came next, then losses to Drake and Bradley over the next three games to finish off the regular season. Northern Iowa lost versus Valparaiso in the tournament to leave the team at 20-12 overall. 

Back on March 7 versus Valparaiso, the Panthers went into the locker room with a 45-32 deficit. Northern Iowa came back on a 31-19 run in the second half but it wasn’t enough in a 64-63 loss. Leading the way in the defeat was Tytan Anderson with 22 points, five boards and two assists. Trey Campbell added 11 points with seven rebounds, while Cael Schmitt put up eight points and two steals in 25 minutes of work off the bench. 

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

Over on the Mustangs’ side, they kicked things off on a nice run, going 11-2 over the first 13 outings with losses to only Butler and Mississippi State. SMU would lose to Duke, North Carolina and Louisville in the next six games, then beat NC State, Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh from there. It’s been a choppy 4-5 run in the last nine outings with wins over Notre Dame, Cal and Syracuse (twice) among losses to Wake Forest, Clemson, Stanford, Florida State and Clemson again. That gives the Mustangs a 23-10 record overall this year. 

Matched up in tournament action versus Clemson last Thursday, the Mustangs came into the second half with a 28-27 deficit. SMU didn’t get any closer than that in the end, posting a 29-27 run for a 57-54 loss. Matt Cross led the way in the defeat with his 13 points, four rebounds and two steals. Also in double-figures was Boopie Miller with 10 points, four assists and two steals in 36 minutes of work during the loss. 

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won 13 of its last 14 night games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas) against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Northern Iowa has lost five of its last six games when playing with a rest advantage.
• Northern Iowa has lost the first half in four of its last five games.

Why the Northern Iowa Panthers will win

• Northern Iowa has won five of its last six night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has lost three of its last four National Invitation Tournament night games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of SMU’s last six night games against non-Conference opponents at Moody Coliseum (Dallas) have produced a total of 149+ points.
• Each of Northern Iowa’s last four games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 129 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranks 26th among Division 1 teams for defensive rating this season (104.5).
• SMU ranks 26th among Division 1 teams for points per possession this season (1.17).
• Northern Iowa ranks 26th among Division 1 teams for opponent assists per game this season (10.6).
• Northern Iowa ranks 28th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throws made per game this season (10.8).

Northern Iowa vs SMU Prediction 

I’m going to lean toward Northern Iowa. You could make a case either way here, though. The Panthers had a rough first half in their tournament loss to a middling Valparaiso team and couldn’t rally for the win in the end. Northern Iowa ended up shooting 47.9 percent from the field in that one but went just 11-of-21 (52.4 percent) from the line and had 11 turnovers. That’s not going to cut it in tournament play. Northern Iowa has been below 64 points in three of their last four games (all three were losses), so they’re going to need a big push on offense here. 

As for SMU, it’s been a choppy run lately as they’ve finished below 70 points in all five losses during this 4-5 stretch. If Northern Iowa can keep that trend going (and find some life at the line), the Panthers will be in good shape for a potential cover. 

Andrew Jett's Pick: Northern Iowa Panthers +10.5