North Dakota State vs Michigan State Prediction 3/19/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

Andrew Jett

15 hours ago

Mar 10, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Michigan State Spartans cheerleaders perform on the court during a stoppage in play against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the first half during the Big Ten Conference Tournament at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	North Dakota State Bison	Michigan State Spartans
Team Records	27-7	25-7
Spread	+15.5 -102	-15.5 -118
Moneyline	+950	-1650
Total	Over 143.5 (-110)	Under 143.5 (-110)
Where	Michigan State Stadium
When	Thursday, March 19, 2026
Time	04:05 PM EDT
TV	TNT

The North Dakota State Bison and the Michigan State Spartans meet Thursday in NCAA Tournament First Round college basketball action from KeyBank Center in Buffalo. Here’s a North Dakota State vs Michigan State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best North Dakota State vs Michigan State pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

North Dakota State Bison Betting Preview

The Bison opened up the season on a 10-5 run, then took out South Dakota, Oral Roberts, Kansas City, Omaha, South Dakota State, St. Thomas-MN, Denver, Oral Roberts and South Dakota before a loss to Denver. After that came a 5-1 run to close out the regular season with a lone loss to St. Thomas-MN. In the conference tournament the Bison took out Oral Roberts, Omaha and North Dakota.

In the Summit League Tournament championship versus North Dakota on Sunday, the Bison found themselves up eight points 38-30 going into the second half. North Dakota State kept the pace from there on a 32-32 run and took the win in the end 70-62. Leading team scorer Damari Wheeler-Thomas had 19 points with six rebounds and Tay Smith added 13 points.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

Over on the Michigan State side, they kicked off the year on a nice 19-2 run. The next four games were a 1-3 run though, with losses to Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. After wins over UCLA, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana and Rutgers came another loss to Michigan. The Spartans didn’t last long in the Big Ten Tournament, falling to UCLA in their opening game.

Last Friday in the UCLA matchup the Spartans came back out onto the floor after the break with a troubling 44-33 deficit. Michigan State fought back on a 51-44 run from there but couldn’t bridge the gap in an eventual 88-84 loss as time wound down. Jeremy Fears led the way on 21 points with 13 assists for a double-double and both Carson Cooper and Kur Teng chipped in 13 points apiece.

North Dakota State Bison @ Michigan State Spartans Betting Trends: March 19, 2026

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

Michigan State has won each of its last eight day games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
North Dakota State has lost each of its last four day games against AP-ranked opponents.
North Dakota State has lost the first half in 13 of its last 14 games against AP-ranked opponents.

Why the North Dakota State Bison will win

North Dakota State has won each of its last eight games when playing with a rest advantage.
Michigan State has lost three of its last four games as a top-10 AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
Michigan State has lost the first half in five of its last six March games as a top-10 AP-ranked team.

Total Points Facts

Nine of North Dakota State’s last 10 day games have produced a total of 144+ points.
Each of Michigan State’s last four NCAA Tournament day games have produced a total of 141 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

Michigan State ranks 11th among Division 1 teams for assists per game this season (18.3).
Michigan State ranks T23rd among Division 1 teams for rebounds per game this season (40.0).
North Dakota State ranks 30th among Division 1 teams for net rating this season (+16.2).
North Dakota State ranks 34th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throws made per game this season (11.7).

North Dakota State vs Michigan State Prediction

I’ll lean towards North Dakota State. The Bison had a nice run through the conference tournament, culminating in 44.6 percent shooting in the win over North Dakota. North Dakota State added a 38-31 rebounding edge and just 36.4 percent shooting allowed on defense, but didn’t perform great at the line (10-of-19 for 52.6 percent). Still, the Bison have won eight of their last nine games and 17 of their last 19 overall.

As for Michigan State, they had a quick appearance in a very competitive conference tournament. The Spartans shot a solid 45.2 percent from the field versus UCLA but also surrendered 55.6 percent on the other side. Michigan State added a 32-26 rebounding edge and 12 turnovers for 10 Bruins points. The Spartans are scoring great these days; they could very well lock in and dominate this one. That said, I like North Dakota State to play well enough to cover.