North Carolina vs San Diego State Prediction 3/18/25 College Basketball Picks

In this article, we will formulate a North Carolina vs San Diego State prediction for this College Basketball game on Tuesday, March 18th at the UD Arena in Dayton, OH. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this game in the South Region – First Four of the NCAA tournament. The winner of this game will meet Ole Miss in the 1st Round.

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13, 15-19-1 ATS) experienced their best period of the season as they recorded six consecutive victories from mid-February to early March. The Tar Heels couldn’t make it seven in a row as Duke stopped them with a comfortable win. Still, thanks to a good form late in the season, North Carolina secured the No. 5 seed for the conference tournament and didn’t have problems against Notre Dame and Wake Forest, but once again, Duke was a stumbling block for the Tar Heels. The Blue Devils won 74-71 in the semifinals and later won the tournament.

North Carolina is averaging 80.8 PPG (33rd) and is allowing 75.0 PPG (273rd). The Tar Heels are getting 36.7 RPG (126th) and dish out 14.7 APG (118th). RJ Davis is the team’s top performer with 17.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.7 APG, and 1.1 SPG. Ian Jackson has 12.4 PPG and 2.8 RPG, while Seth Trimble contributes 11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and a team-high 1.4 SP. 

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview

The San Diego State Aztecs (21-9, 12-17 ATS) played well late in the regular season as they secured six wins in eight games, defeating Boise State and New Mexico, among others. These wins were enough for San Diego State to book the No. 4 seed for the Mountain West tournament, but the Aztecs then displayed one of their weakest offensive performances in a 62-52 loss to Boise State. It was a disappointing conference tournament for San Diego State, but thanks to some valuable victories early in the season, the Aztecs got a chance to participate in teh Big Dance.

San Diego State averages 70.9 PPG (278th) and allows 63.6 PPG (14th). The Aztecs are 199th in rebounds (35.4) and 247th in assists (13.1). Nick Boyd leads the team with 13.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, a team-high 4.0 APG, and 1.0 SPG. Miles Byrd follows him with 12.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, and a team-high 2.1 SPG, while BJ Davis chips in 9.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and 1.5 SPG.

Why North Carolina will beat San Diego State

• North Carolina has won 10 of its last 11 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• San Diego State has lost each of its last three games when playing with a rest advantage.

Total Points Facts

• Each of North Carolina’s last 17 games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues has produced a total of 150+ points.
• Each of San Diego State’s last five games has produced a total of 141 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• San Diego State ranks 7th among Division 1 teams for blocks per game this season (5.6).
• San Diego State ranks 12th among Division 1 teams for opponent assist-to-turnover ratio this season (0.79).
• North Carolina ranks 34th among Division 1 teams for field goal percentage this season (48.0%).
• North Carolina ranks 44th among Division 1 teams for pace this season (70.4).

North Carolina vs San Diego State Prediction

It’s going to be the first meeting between these teams. Some experts claimed that North Carolina didn’t deserve to get the First Four invitation as the Tar Heels lacked big wins throughout the season. They only recorded one victory against the top 25 ranked teams, while San Diego State has two such wins. Still, I am sure North Carolina, one of the most successful programs in the country, will prove the doubters wrong and will win this game and enter the main tournament. San Diego State has only covered the Spread in 12 of its last 32 games. Back North Carolina to win and cover.

Oliver Zivic's Pick: North Carolina -4.5