North Carolina vs Ole Miss Prediction 3/21/25 College Basketball Picks

The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Ole Miss Rebels meet Friday in NCAA Tournament First Round college basketball action from Fiserv Forum. Here’s a North Carolina vs Ole Miss prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best North Carolina vs Ole Miss pick. We will examine: 

The North Carolina Tar Heels recent form and player performance

The Ole Miss Rebels recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the North Carolina Tar Heels

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Ole Miss Rebels

Recent betting trends in games played between North Carolina and Ole Miss

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the North Carolina vs Ole Miss game

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

The Tar Heels had a couple of rough spots during the regular season but did pretty well overall considering their tricky schedule. UNC opened on a 12-6 run through their first 18 games then took losses to Stanford and Wake Forest in succession. North Carolina would lose to Pittsburgh, Duke and Clemson in the next five games, then hit a win streak over Syracuse, NC State, Virginia, Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech. After finishing the regular season with a loss to Duke, the Tar Heels beat Notre Dame and Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament ahead of another loss to Duke. UNC’s First Four game was a win over San Diego State though, giving the team a 23-13 overall record so far. 

In NCAA Tournament action Wednesday versus San Diego State, the Tar Heels posted 47 points in the first half and 48 in the second on the way to a 95-68 win. Leading the team in scoring was RJ Davis with 26 points and two assists in 28 minutes of work on the floor. 

Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview

Over on the Ole Miss side, they were looking pretty good in mid-January then hit a rough run amid some very difficult conference matchups. The Rebels lost to only Purdue and Memphis in their first 17 games, then hit losses to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Missouri and Auburn in the next five. A 3-3 run came next with wins over Kentucky, LSU and South Carolina ahead of losses to Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Auburn. Since then it’s been a 3-2 stretch with wins over Oklahoma, Tennessee and Arkansas mixed with losses to Florida and Auburn. That gives Ole Miss a 22-11 overall run so far this year through 33 games. 

In their SEC Tournament quarterfinal matchup versus Auburn, Ole Miss went into the second half trailing 29-22. The Rebels got slightly closer on a 35-33 run the rest of the way but ended up losing 62-57 in the end. Both Sean Pedulla (one rebound; one steal) and Dre Davis (six rebounds) lead the team with 12 points each during the losing effort. Jaemyn Brakefield chipped in six points and three boards off the bench as well. 

Why the Ole Miss Rebels will win

• Ole Miss has won 19 of its last 21 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• North Carolina has lost each of its last five games against the Southeastern Conference.
• Ole Miss has won the first half in five of its last six games against non-Conference opponents.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win

• North Carolina has won each of its last seven NCAA Tournament day games.
• Ole Miss has lost three of its last four NCAA Tournament games.
• Ole Miss has lost the first half in six of its last eight day games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of North Carolina’s last eight games against the Southeastern Conference at neutral venues have produced a total of 157+ points.
• Sixteen of Ole Miss’ last 20 games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 153 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Ole Miss ranks 7th among Division 1 teams for assist to turnover ratio this season (1.66).
• Ole Miss ranks 32nd among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (8.6).
• North Carolina ranks 34th among Division 1 teams for field goal percentage this season (48.0%).
• North Carolina ranks 44th among Division 1 teams for pace this season (70.4).

North Carolina vs Ole Miss Prediction 

I’m going to try Ole Miss. Probably staying away from this one though, as you could make a case either way. The Rebels didn’t look great against a talented Auburn team in their last outing, hitting just 37.7 percent from the field and 17.4 percent (4-of-23) from 3-point range alongside a 38-28 rebounding deficit. Ole Miss did get 18 points off 15 Tigers turnovers but it wasn’t enough. The good news is that Ole Miss had been scoring well for quite some time, notching 71 or more points in 13 games prior to that defeat. 

As for North Carolina, they looked good in their win over a pretty solid San Diego State team. The Tar Heels shot a nice 52.6 percent from the field in that one along with 14-of-24 (58.3 percent) from outside and 21-of-24 (87.5 percent) from the line alongside a 39-28 rebounding advantage. I could easily see UNC controlling this one if they can keep it going. Should be a great game. 

Andrew Jett's Pick: Ole Miss Rebels +1.5