North Carolina vs NC State Prediction 2/17/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The North Carolina Tar Heels and the NC State Wolfpack meet Tuesday in college basketball action from the Lenovo Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a North Carolina Tar Heels vs. NC State Wolfpack prediction.

North Carolina Tar Heels Recap

The North Carolina Tar Heels come into this game looking to add on to their 79-65 win over Pitt last time out to sit at 20-5 this season. After this game, North Carolina will head on the road for a game against Syracuse.

Tar Heels Win 6 Of Last 7

Caleb Wilson leads the Tar Heels in scoring and rebounding with 19.8 PPG and 9.4 RPG along with 2.7 APG while Henri Veesaar has 16.4 PPG with 9 RPG. Seth Trimble has 13.9 PPG along with 3.8 RPG and 2.4 APG to cap off the Tar Heels’ group of double-digit scorers. Kyan Evans has 2.9 APG to lead the Tar Heels in assists while Luka Bogavac has 9.8 PPG with 2.4 RPG and 2.4 APG so far this season. As a team, North Carolina is averaging 81.8 PPG on 47.6% shooting from the field, 34.5% from three and 69.2% from the foul line this season. 

NC State Wolfpack Recap

The NC State Wolfpack come into this game looking to bounce back from their 77-76 loss at the hands of Miami last time out to sit at 18-8 this year. After this game, NC State will head on the road for a game against Virginia.

Wolfpack Drop Back-To-Back Games

Darrion Williams leads NC State in scoring with 14.2 PPG along with 5.2 RPG and 3 APG while Quadir Copeland has 13.8 PPG with 3.5 RPG and a team-high 6.8 APG to lead NC State in assists. Paul McNeil Jr. has 13.6 PPG with 3.6 RPG and Ven-Allen Lubin has 13.7 PPG with a team-high 7.1 RPG to lead the Wolfpack in rebounding. Tre Holloman has 10 PPG with 2.2 APG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for NC State so far this season. Matt Able has 8.5 PPG with 3.4 RPG as well this season. As a team, NC State is averaging 85 PPG on 47.8% shooting from the field, 39.4% from three and 76.4% from the foul line so far this season.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ NC State Wolfpack Betting Trends: February 17, 2026

Why the NC State Wolfpack will win

• NC State has won seven of its last eight night games at Lenovo Center.
• NC State has won the first half in eight of its last nine home games against Conference opponents.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win

• North Carolina has won each of its last seven road games against NC State following a home win.
• NC State has lost eight of its last nine games against AP-ranked opponents.
• North Carolina has won the first half in 21 of its last 22 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of NC State’s last 18 games against Conference opponents at Lenovo Center have produced a total of 158 or fewer points.
• Each of North Carolina’s last six games at Lenovo Center have produced a total of 158 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• NC State ranks 17th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (68.0%).
• NC State ranks 21st among Division 1 teams for assist to turnover ratio this season (1.69).
• North Carolina ranks 8th among Division 1 teams for assist to turnover ratio this season (1.81).
• North Carolina ranks 11th among Division 1 teams for turnovers per game this season (9.3).

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. NC State Wolfpack Prediction

I’m on North Carolina and the points here. I just don’t think in their current form NC State should be laying points against anyone, let alone this many points, and the problem for the Wolfpack is that last game was supposed to be the bounce back after the Louisville drubbing. Instead, the Wolfpack collapsed against Miami and North Carolina will likely smell blood in the water. I think UNC is live to win this game. Give me North Carolina and the points.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: North Carolina +6.5