| MATCHUP | North Carolina Tar Heels | California Golden Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 14-3 | 13-5 |
| Spread | -6.5 -108 | +6.5 -112 |
| Moneyline | -225 | +185 |
| Total | Over 151.5 (-105) | Under 151.5 (-115) |
| Where | Haas Pavilion, Berkeley, CA | |
| When | Saturday, January 17, 2026 | |
| Time | 04:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ACC Network | |
The North Carolina Tar Heels and the California Golden Bears meet Saturday in college basketball action from Haas Pavilion. Here’s a North Carolina vs California prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best North Carolina vs California pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
North Carolina managed to win their first six straight games this year before a loss to Michigan State. After that came wins over Kentucky, Georgetown, USC Upstate, East Tennessee State, Ohio State, East Carolina and Florida State. Since then it’s been a 1-2 run with losses to SMU and Stanford around a win over Wake Forest. That gives the Tar Heels a 14-3 run over their first 17 games this year.
In the Stanford game on Wednesday the Tar Heels entered the second half with a slim edge 47-45. North Carolina was outscored 50-43 the rest of the way, leading to a 95-90 defeat in the end. The Tar Heels’ Caleb Wilson scored 26 points with nine rebounds and two assists in 36 minutes. Henri Veesaar added 26 points with six rebounds and one assist in 32 minutes during the defeat.
California Golden Bears Betting Preview
Over on the California side, they came out of the gate on a great run this year. The Golden Bears lost just one of their first 13 games, falling to Kansas State on November 13. Since then however, it’s been a rough 1-4 run. The losses in that time have come versus Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Duke, giving the Bears a 13-5 overall record in the books across their first 18 games of the season.
In the Duke matchup on Wednesday, the Golden Bears were in the locker room with a 37-30 deficit. California was outscored 34-26 the rest of the way, resulting in a home loss 71-56 in the end. Leading team scorer Lee Dort put up 14 points with nine rebounds. John Camden added 11 points with two rebounds and Justin Pippen had 10 points with three rebounds and three assists.
North Carolina Tar Heels @ California Golden Bears Betting Trends: January 17, 2026
Why the California Golden Bears will win
- California has won four of its last five day games.
- North Carolina has lost each of its last three January games as a top-15 AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- California has lost each of its last nine games against AP-ranked opponents at Haas Pavilion.
- North Carolina has won 19 of its last 21 day games against the Atlantic Coast Conference.
- California has lost the first half in each of its last seven day games against AP-ranked opponents.
North Carolina vs California Prediction
I’ll stick with North Carolina, but this is something of a coin flip as both teams could use a good performance here after their respective losses. UNC gave up 57.1 percent shooting to Stanford this week, with another 57.1 percent (16-of-28) from 3-point range. Otherwise the Tar Heels looked pretty good statistically with 58.2 percent shooting and a 29-22 rebounding edge. The 20-of-32 (62.5 percent) from the line could have been better, though. North Carolina has lost two of the last three games but they’re still scoring well with 71 or more points in nine straight outings.
As for Cal, they shot just 36.5 percent from the field with a 38-22 rebounding deficit and a 42-16 disadvantage on points in the paint in their loss to Duke—not to mention the 21.7 percent (5-of-23) from 3-point range. California has lost four of the last five games against some tough competition, and they’ve scored fewer than 61 points in two of the last three.