Michigan State (28-6) vs New Mexico (27-7)
Game Info: Sunday, March 23, 2025 at 8:40 pm (Rocket Arena)
The Line: Betting Odds: Michigan State -7.5 — Over/Under: 148.5
In this article, we will formulate a New Mexico vs Michigan State prediction for this College Basketball game on Sunday, March 23 at the Rocket Arena in Cleveland, OH. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this game in the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament. The winner of this game will meet Ole Miss or Iowa State in the Sweet 16.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
The New Mexico Lobos (27-7, 16-17 ATS) closed out the regular season with three straight wins and clinched the No. 1 seed for the Mountain West tournament. The Lobos didn’t have problems with San Jose State in the quarterfinals but experienced an upset in the semis as Boise State was better 72-69. Still, New Mexico received an invitation to the NCAA tournament, where it beat Marquette 75-66 in the first round, making an upset in the process.
New Mexico is averaging 81.1 PPG (29th) and is allowing 70.6 PPG (139th). The Lobos are getting 39.2 RPG (27th) and dish out 15.1 APG (91st). Donovan Dent is the team’s top performer with 20.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 6.4 APG, and 1.4 SPG. Nelly Junior Joseph has 14.1 PPG, a team-high 11.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and a team-high 1.5 BPG, while Tru Washington contributes 11.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.0 AP, and a team-high 2.1 SPG.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
The Michigan State Spartans (28-6, 23-10-1 ATS) finished the regular season on a high note with seven consecutive wins to secure the No. 1 seed for the Big Ten tournament. The Spartans beat Oregon 74-64 in the quarterfinals, but the Wisconsin Badgers surprised them in the semis with a 77-74 win. Nevertheless, Michigan State got its ticket for the NCAA tournament where they dismantled Bryant 87-62 in the first round.
Michigan State averages 78.4 PPG (73rd) and allows 67.1 PPG (45th). The Spartans are 14th in rebounds (40.2) and 29th in assists (16.8). Jaden Akins leads the team with 12.6 PPG and 3.6 RPG. Jase Richardson follows him with 12.1 PPG and 3.2 RPG, while Tre Holloman chips in 9.1 PPG, 2.0 RPG, and 3.8 APG.
Why New Mexico will beat Michigan State
- New Mexico has won 32 of its last 38 games against non-conference opponents.
- Michigan State has lost the first half in four of its last five night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why Michigan State will beat New Mexico
- Michigan State has won each of its last six night games.
- New Mexico has lost each of its last three games against Top 10 AP-ranked opponents.
- New Mexico has lost the first half in each of its last three games against Top 10 AP-ranked opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of New Mexico’s last five night games has produced a total of 148 or fewer points.
- Ten of Michigan State’s last 12 games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 148 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Michigan State ranks 12th among Division 1 teams for rebounds per game this season (40.0).
- Michigan State ranks 14th among Division 1 teams for free throw percentage this season (78.9%).
- New Mexico ranks 15th among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (15.4).
- New Mexico ranks 16th among Division 1 teams for blocks per game this season (5.2).
New Mexico vs Michigan State Prediction
These teams have never met before. Michigan State is a better team and I think it will progress to the Sweet 16, but I don’t like the spread and despite the fact that the Spartans covered nine of their previous ten games, I will avoid betting on the winner. I like the points better, so I am going with Under. Michigan State is 11-23 Over/Under, while New Mexico has a 14-18-1 Over/Under record. The Spartans are 2-8 Over/Under in the last ten games, and this one should be another low-scoring affair. Go with Under.