| MATCHUP | Missouri State Bears | Liberty Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 13-9 | 19-3 |
| Spread | +9.5 -115 | -9.5 -105 |
| Moneyline | +370 | -485 |
| Total | Over 138.5 (-115) | Under 138.5 (-105) |
| Where | Liberty Arena (VA), Lynchburg, VA | |
| When | Saturday, February 7, 2026 | |
| Time | 02:00 PM EST | |
| TV | CBSSN | |
The Missouri State Bears and the Liberty Flames meet Saturday in college basketball action from Liberty Arena in Lynchburg. Here’s a Missouri State vs Liberty prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Missouri State vs Liberty pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview
The Bears were able to notch a 4-5 record over their first nine games, then took victories versus Oral Roberts, Lindenwood, Delaware, UTEP and New Mexico State in succession. A 3-3 run came next with losses to Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee among wins over FIU, New Mexico State and UTEP. After a loss to Sam Houston and a win over Jacksonville State the Bears have a 13-9 record this year.
Last weekend versus Jacksonville State, the Bears were in the locker room with a 39-31 edge on the scoreboard. Missouri State posted a 36-35 run in the second half, eventually powering out the victory at home 74-67 in the end. Keith Palek led the team with 18 points, four rebounds and six assists while Trey Williams had 14 points and three assists in the winning effort.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
Over on the Flames’ side, they kicked off the season on a 5-0 run then fell to Towson, Bradley and NC State over the next four games. Wins versus Midway U, Dayton, FIU, Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, LA Tech, Sam Houston, New Mexico State, UTEP, Western Kentucky, Delaware and Middle Tennessee came after that, however. Over the first 21 games Liberty had an 18-3 record in the books.
Matched up against Delaware on Wednesday the Flames didn’t play so well in the first half and trailed in the locker room 30-29. Liberty woke up on a 46-39 run from there though, eventually taking the win 75-69. Colin Porter topped the team on 23 points with five rebounds and two assists, while Josh Smith added 14 points with five rebounds in 18 minutes of work on the floor.
Missouri State Bears @ Liberty Flames Betting Trends: February 7, 2026
Why the Liberty Flames will win
- Liberty has won each of its last 16 games against the Conference USA.
- Missouri State has lost five of its last six road games following a home win.
- Missouri State has lost the first half in four of its last five road games against the Conference USA.
Why the Missouri State Bears will win
- Missouri State has won six of its last seven day games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Missouri State vs Liberty Prediction
I’ll stick with Liberty. The Flames hit a very nice 51.1 percent from the field in their win over Delaware, but also gave up 51 percent on defense. Liberty’s saving grace was their 20 free throw attempts (making 18 for 90 percent), as opposed to the Hens’ nine attempts (making eight for 88.9 percent). That makes 13 straight wins for the Flames, who have given up fewer than 70 points in five consecutive outings.
As for Missouri State, they were able to outlast a decent Jacksonville State team in a home victory last weekend. The Bears shot 46.6 percent from the field in that one with a 32-30 advantage on points in the paint. That said, Missouri State got out-rebounded 34-24 and hit just 57.1 percent (12-of-21) from the line. The Bears will have their hands full with Saturday’s matchup, and I don’t think they’ll quite get there.