Missouri State vs Illinois State Prediction 3/6/25 College Basketball Picks

The Missouri State Bears and the Illinois State Redbirds meet Thursday in college basketball action from the Credit Union 1 Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Missouri State vs. Illinois State prediction.

Matchup History

The Illinois State Redbirds won both meetings in the regular season with a 74-68 win at home on January 18th, 2025, followed by a 70-68 win on February 22nd, 2025, at Missouri State. The win game Illinois State five straight wins in this head-to-head matchup.

Missouri State Recap

The Missouri State Bears enter the conference tournament as the 12-seed after finishing the year 9-22 overall, including a 2-18 mark in Missouri Valley Conference play, sitting in the basement of the conference.

Bears Looking To Spring Upset

Dez White leads the Bears in scoring and assists with 14.3 PPG and 2.6 APG along with 2.9 RPG while Vincent Brady II has added 13.7 PPG with 4.2 RPG and 2.6 APG as well on the year. Michael Osei-Bonsu has 11.1 PPG with 7.5 RPG to cap off the trio of double-digit scorers for Missouri State up to this point in the year as the Bears’ leading rebounder. Zaxton King has added 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG while Jalen Hampton’s chipped in 7.6 PPG with 6 RPG as well on the year. As a team, Missouri State is averaging 68.4 PPG on 45.1% shooting from the field, 36% from three-point range and 65.4% from the foul line so far this season.

Why the Missouri State Bears will win

• Illinois State has lost each of its last four day games at Enterprise Center.
• Missouri State has won each of its last five Thursday games against the Missouri Valley Conference.

Illinois State Recap

The Illinois State Redbirds come into the conference tournament as the 5-seed, finishing the year with an overall record of 18-13 including a 10-10 mark in MVC play.

Redbirds Looking To Hold Serve In Opening Round

Chase Walker leads Illinois State in scoring and rebounding with 15.1 PPG and 6 RPG while Johnny Kinziger has 15 PPG with 3.8 RPG and 3 APG as the only other double-digit scorer for Illinois State so far this season. Dalton Banks also has added 9.9 PPG with 3.5 RPG and a team-high 3.7 APG to lead the Redbirds in assists while Landon Wolf’s added 6.8 PPG with 3.3 RPG. As a team, Illinois State is averaging 76.1 PPG on 48.2% shooting from the field, 38% from three and 75.2% from the foul line this season.

Why the Illinois State Redbirds will win

• Missouri State has lost 19 of its last 21 games against the Missouri Valley Conference.
• Illinois State has won each of its last five games against Missouri State.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of Illinois State’s last 10 games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 133+ points.
• Three of Missouri State’s last four day games against non-AP-ranked opponents at Enterprise Center have produced a total of 134+ points.

Missouri State vs. Illinois State Prediction

I’m on Missouri State in this game. I think that Illinois State should be favored here, but we’ve seen in the past how volatile the MVC tournament can be and upsets happen left and right. The Redbirds won both meetings this season, but it was a big alarming that the wins came by a combined 8 points against a team that finished 2-18 in conference play. I think that Missouri State can keep this game within reason, and I think the Bears could actually be live to spring the upset in this game so give me Missouri State and the points in this one.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Missouri State +4.5