Mississippi State vs Arkansas Prediction 3/8/25 College Basketball Picks

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Arkansas Razorbacks meet Saturday in college basketball action from Bud Walton Arena. Here’s a Mississippi State vs Arkansas prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Mississippi State vs Arkansas pick. We will examine: 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs’ recent form and player performance

The Arkansas Razorbacks’ recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Mississippi State Bulldogs

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arkansas Razorbacks

Recent betting trends in games played between Mississippi State and Arkansas

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Mississippi State vs Arkansas game

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Bulldogs got off to a great start this year, but they’ve been struggling since early January. Mississippi State hit an excellent 14-1 run over their first 15 outings, falling to only Butler in that time. The Bulldogs would go just 3-6 over the next nine, beating Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Georgia alongside losses to Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and Florida. Wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M came next, then a 1-3 run with a lone win over LSU. Otherwise, the losses in that quartet were versus Oklahoma, Alabama, and Texas, giving the Bulldogs a 20-10 overall run across 30 games so far this season. 

In their Tuesday matchup versus Texas, the Bulldogs came out of the locker room with a five-point deficit. Mississippi State fought back to force overtime, but eventually lost 87-82 in the end. Leading the scoring was Josh Hubbard with 16 points, two rebounds and two assists. RJ Melendez added 15 points with eight rebounds, three assists, and two steals. KeShawn Murphy was the top bench player with 13 points, seven rebounds, and one assist in 30 minutes. 

Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview

Over on the Arkansas side, they also had a great opening run this year but haven’t been quite the same since the calendar changed to 2025. The Razorbacks lost to only Illinois and Baylor in their opening 13 games, then fell versus Tennessee, Ole Miss, Florida, LSU, and Missouri in the next five. Arkansas beat Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, and LSU among losses to Oklahoma, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Auburn in the next eight, but since have gone 3-1 with a lone loss to South Carolina. The wins otherwise came versus Missouri, Texas, and Vanderbilt. In total across 30 games that gives the Razorbacks an 18-12 record. 

Matched up against Vanderbilt in their Tuesday outing, Arkansas emerged from halftime with a 43-37 advantage. The Razorbacks kept it up in the second on a 47-40 run and took the victory in the end 90-77. Leading the team in scoring was Johnell Davis with 21 points, four rebounds, and two assists. Trevon Brazile doubled up on 16 points with 14 rebounds, while Billy Richmond led the bench scoring on eight points with two boards and two assists. 

Why the Arkansas Razorbacks will win

• The home team has won four of Mississippi State’s last five games.
• Mississippi State has lost three of its last four games.
• Arkansas has won the first half in three of its last four home day games against the Southeastern Conference.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Arkansas has lost each of its last eight day games against the Southeastern Conference.
• Mississippi State has won six of its last seven day games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Mississippi State has won the first half in five of its last six day games against Arkansas.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of Mississippi State’s last 10 games have produced a total of 149+ points.
• Four of Arkansas’ last five day games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 134 or fewer points.

Mississippi State vs Arkansas Prediction 

I’ll try Arkansas in this one. The Razorbacks are playing well in the last four outings, including their latest road win over Vanderbilt. Arkansas hit a nice 50.8 percent from the field in that one while allowing just 38.3 percent on the other side. The Razorbacks also had a 42-31 rebounding edge, but the 15 turnovers for 10 Commodores points didn’t help matters.  Arkansas has scored at least 86 points in each of their wins during this current 3-1 run. 

As for Mississippi State, they’re coming off a tough home loss versus Texas and have fallen in three of the last four. The Bulldogs have given up 87 or more points in all three of those games, so Arkansas should be able to carve out some offense in this one. The Razorbacks will definitely need to clean up the ball-handling mistakes, though. 

Andrew Jett's Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks -1.5