Michigan State vs Iowa Prediction 3/6/25 College Basketball Picks

The Michigan State Spartans and the Iowa Hawkeyes meet Thursday in college basketball action from Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Here’s a Michigan State vs Iowa prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Michigan State vs Iowa pick. We will examine: 

The Michigan State Spartans’ recent form and player performance

The Iowa Hawkeyes’ recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Michigan State Spartans

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Iowa Hawkeyes

Recent betting trends in games played between Michigan State and Iowa

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Michigan State vs Iowa game

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Spartans had one spotty four-game run going back in February, but aside from that it’s been a great campaign this season. Michigan State had losses to just Kansas and Memphis in their first seven, then beat North Carolina, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oakland, FAU, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Northwestern, Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers, and Minnesota from there. The Spartans would fall to USC, UCLA, and Indiana (with a win over Oregon) in their next four games, but they’ve since taken out Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland, and Wisconsin in the last five. That gives the Spartans a 24-5 overall run through 29 games so far. 

In the Wisconsin matchup on Sunday, the Spartans came out of the break sporting a two-point deficit. Michigan State woke up from there on a 39-28 run and took the comeback win 71-62 in the end. Tops in scoring was Jaden Akins with 19 points, eight boards, and one assist. Jaxon Kohler doubled up on 10 points with 16 rebounds and two assists, while Jase Richardson put up 11 points, six assists, and five rebounds in 21 minutes of work during the win. 

Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview

Over on the Hawkeyes’ side, they were looking great back in early January, but since then the team has struggled amid some very tough matchups. Iowa opened on a nice 12-4 run with losses to only Utah State, Michigan, Iowa State, and Wisconsin. Since then, however, it’s been a 3-10 run with wins over only Penn State, Rutgers and Washington. The losses otherwise have come versus USC, UCLA, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Oregon, Illinois, and Northwestern. In total that gives the Hawkeyes a 15-14 record across their first 29 outings of the 2024-25 campaign. 

Matched up against Northwestern in their game last Friday, the Hawkeyes held a 30-26 deficit by the break. Iowa didn’t end up getting any closer in a 38-31 run from there, eventually taking the loss 68-57 in the end. Tops in scoring was Drew Thelwell with 14 points, three assists, one rebound, and one steal during the defeat. The only other team player to reach double-figures was Josh Dix with 10 points, four boards and two assists in 34 minutes out there. 

Why the Iowa Hawkeyes will win

• Iowa has won five of its last six games against Michigan State.
• The home team has won the first half in four of Michigan State’s last five games.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Iowa has lost 16 of its last 17 night games against Top 10 AP-ranked opponents.
• Michigan State has won each of its last five games against the Big Ten Conference.

Michigan State vs Iowa Prediction 

I’ll lean toward Michigan State. The Spartans are looking great these days and coming off another solid win (despite a slow start). Michigan State ended up shooting just 39.4 percent versus Wisconsin, but also had a 51-40 rebounding edge, 20 team assists, and just nine turnovers in a nine-point home victory. It wasn’t the prettiest victory in the world, but it extends Michigan State’s win streak to five—with the last four of those coming versus ranked teams. 

As for Iowa, they shot just 36.2 percent from the field with a 38-32 rebounding disadvantage in their latest loss to Northwestern. The Hawkeyes have taken consecutive road losses in their last pair, posting just 118 combined points in those two games. The wins have been pretty scattered lately for Iowa, and it’s tough to imagine them staying close in this one—even at home. I like Michigan State to roll. 

Andrew Jett's Pick: Michigan State Spartans -7