Illinois (17-8) vs Michigan State (19-5)
February 15, 2025 at 08:00 PM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: Illinois -5.5 — Over/Under: 154.5
The Michigan State Spartans and the Illinois Fighting Illini meet Saturday in college basketball action from State Farm Center. Here’s a Michigan State vs Illinois prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Michigan State vs Illinois pick. We will examine:
The Michigan State Spartans’ recent form and player performance
The Illinois Fighting Illini’s recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Michigan State Spartans
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Illinois Fighting Illini
Recent betting trends in games played between Michigan State and Illinois
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Michigan State vs Illinois game
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
The Spartans have had a pretty great season overall, however, they’ve fallen on hard times over the last four games amid some tough matchups. Michigan State went 5-2 over their first seven with losses to only Kansas and Memphis in that time. A lengthy winning streak ensued over North Carolina, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oakland, Florida Atlantic, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Northwestern, Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers, and Minnesota. Since then it’s been a rough 1-3 run with a lone win over Oregon. Otherwise, the losses have come courtesy of USC, UCLA, and Indiana in that time, giving the Spartans a 19-5 overall run through 24 games so far.
In the Indiana game on Tuesday, the Spartans opened up the game on a 32-29 deficit. Michigan State didn’t end up getting any closer on a 39-38 second half and took the eventual loss 71-67. Jaden Akins led the team in the losing effort with 14 points, three rebounds, and one assist. Jase Richardson added 13 points with six rebounds in 33 minutes. Tops off the bench was Frankie Fidler with 12 points and four rebounds in 23 minutes of work.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Over on the Illinois side, they had a rough stretch of games in January/February but aside from that they’re doing well. The Illini opened the season on a 12-3 stretch through their first 15 outings. Those wins came courtesy of Eastern Illinois, SIU Edwardsville, Oakland, MD Eastern Shore, Little Rock, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Missouri, Chicago State, Oregon, Washington, and Penn State. A 3-5 stretch came next with wins over Indiana, Northwestern, and Ohio State among losses to USC, Michigan State, Maryland, Nebraska, and Rutgers. Since then it’s been wins over Minnesota and UCLA in the last pair. In total so far this season overall, that gives Illinois a 17-8 record through their first 25 games.
Matched up against UCLA in their Tuesday game, the Illini were up 31-25 by the break. Illinois managed to keep up with the second-half pace on 52 points and powered out the home win in the end 83-78. Kasparas Jakucionis led the team with 24 points with eight rebounds and four assists in 37 minutes on the floor. Tomislav Ivisic added 16 points with seven boards and three assists, while Will Riley led the bench scoring on 10 points with three rebounds.
Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win
- Illinois has won each of its last seven night games at State Farm Center following a home win.
- Michigan State has lost four of its last five night games at State Farm Center.
- Illinois has won the first half in 24 of its last 28 games at State Farm Center.
Why the Michigan State Spartans will win
- Michigan State has won 19 of its last 23 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Illinois has lost three of its last four night games.
- Illinois has lost the first half in three of its last four night games against Conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Twelve of the last 13 night games between Michigan State and Illinois have produced a total of 153 or fewer points.
- Thirty-two of Michigan State’s last 36 night games against the Big Ten Conference have produced a total of 154 or fewer points.
Michigan State vs Illinois Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Illini here. You could make a case either way, though; we should have a fun matchup. Illinois dispatched a tricky UCLA team well in their last game, shooting a nice 50.9 percent from the field with a 36-23 rebounding advantage. The one worrying stat, however, was the 14 turnovers for 20 Bruins points. Illinois can’t make those mistakes against the Spartans.
The last time these teams saw each other on January 19, Michigan State powered out an 80-78 win at home. Illinois committed 10 turnovers in that one and missed 10 of their 27 free throws (63 percent). They’ll need a cleaner effort overall in the home rematch but the Illini are fully capable of powering one out Saturday. It’ll be a good game to watch.