Michigan State vs Auburn Prediction 3/30/25 College Basketball Picks

The Michigan State Spartans and the Auburn Tigers meet Sunday in NCAA Tournament Elite Eight college basketball action from State Farm Arena. Here’s a Michigan State vs Auburn prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Michigan State vs Auburn pick. We will examine: 

The Michigan State Spartans recent form and player performance

The Auburn Tigers recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Michigan State Spartans

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Auburn Tigers

Recent betting trends in games played between Michigan State and Auburn

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Michigan State vs Auburn game

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

Michigan State looked great all year during the regular season—save for a very brief run in February across four games. The Spartans opened at 5-2, then beat Minnesota, Nebraska, Oakland, FAU, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, Northwestern, Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers and Minnesota in succession. Michigan State lost three of the next four versus USC, UCLA and Indiana, then beat Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan and Oregon before a conference tournament loss to Wisconsin. In the NCAA Tournament, the Spartans have beaten Bryant, New Mexico and Ole Miss so far for a 30-6 overall record. 

In the Ole Miss game back on Friday, the Spartans were down by two points heading into the second half. Michigan State hit a 42-37 run the rest of the way though, powering out a dramatic win 73-70 in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Jase Richardson with 20 points and six rebounds. Coen Carr chipped in 15 points and three boards as well. 

Auburn Tigers Betting Preview

Over on the Auburn side, they weren’t looking so good heading into the national tournament but they’ve pulled themselves together recently. The Tigers lost to only Duke and Florida in their first 23 outings, then took out Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Ole Miss and Kentucky. The regular season finished off with losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, then came an SEC Tournament win over Ole Miss. After falling to Tennessee in the semifinal game, Auburn has since beaten Alabama State, Creighton and Michigan in the NCAA Tournament. That gives the Tigers a 31-5 overall record this year. 

Matched up against Michigan in Friday’s game, the Tigers held a slim one-point edge in the locker room. Auburn hit the gas in the second though, posting a 48-36 run the rest of the way for a 78-65 victory. Johni Broome led the team in scoring with 22 points and 16 rebounds, while Denver Jones had 20 points with four rebounds and two assists in 35 minutes.

Why the Auburn Tigers will win

• Auburn has won each of its last eight games against non-Conference opponents.
• Michigan State has lost eight of its last nine games against Top 5 AP-ranked opponents.
• Michigan State has lost the first half in each of its last four games against Top 5 AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Michigan State has won 11 of its last 12 games.
• Auburn has lost three of its last four games against AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Four of Auburn’s last five NCAA Tournament games against Top 8 seeds have produced a total of 148 or fewer points.
• Ten of Michigan State’s last 13 games have produced a total of 144 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Auburn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for defensive rating this season (101.9).
• Auburn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for points per possession this season (1.24).
• Michigan State ranks 12th among Division 1 teams for rebounds per game this season (40.0).
• Michigan State ranks 14th among Division 1 teams for free throw percentage this season (78.9%).

Michigan State vs Auburn Prediction 

I was going to lean toward Auburn, but the line seems thick enough for the Spartans to get in there. You could make a good case either way here, though; it’ll be a great matchup if both teams play well. The Tigers dispatched a very good Michigan team on Friday (despite a relatively slow start), hitting a 48-33 rebounding advantage along the way. The shooting wasn’t spectacular for either team (both below 40 percent) and each squad had 15 turnovers in a pretty sloppy outing ball-control-wise. In short, it wasn’t a pretty win but Auburn gutted it out. The Tigers have now scored 78 or more points in all three national tournament outings. 

As for Michigan State, they shot much better (50 percent) and went a nice 19-of-22 (86.4 percent) from the line in their win over Ole Miss on Friday. The Spartans did get out-rebounded 33-29 though, and had 10 turnovers for 13 Ole Miss points. Michigan State has 71 or more points in eight straight games (a 7-1 run), so we should see a pretty healthy total here. Michigan State needs to get it going on the boards but I like them slightly better. It’ll be a great game to watch regardless. 

Andrew Jett's Pick: Michigan State Spartans +5.5