| MATCHUP | Louisville Cardinals | North Carolina Tar Heels |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 20-7 | 21-6 |
| Spread | -2.5 -105 | +2.5 -115 |
| Moneyline | -148 | +124 |
| Total | Over 163.5 (-105) | Under 163.5 (-115) |
| Where | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC | |
| When | Monday, February 23, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN | |
In this article we will formulate a Louisville vs North Carolina prediction for this College Basketball game on Monday, February 23rd at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Basketball matchup.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview
The Louisville Cardinals are 20-7 (9-5) this season after they defeated Georgia Tech by a score of 87-70 in their last game. Louisville led 42-31 at halftime and they added 45 points in the second half in the win. The Cardinals shot 52% from the field, 45% on three pointers, and 95% on free throws in the game. Mikel Brown Jr led Louisville with 19 points and four rebounds, while J’Vonne Hadley added 17 points and five rebounds in the win.
Prior to that game, Louisville lost to SMU by a score of 95-85, but did beat Baylor by a score of 82-71 before that. The Cardinals have scored 86.8 points per game with 39.4 rebounds and 17.8 assists per game, while they have allowed 71.8 points against per game this season. Mikel Brown Jr. is averaging 18.6 points and 4.9 assists per game, while Ryan Conwell is averaging 18.3 points and 4.8 rebounds per game for the Cardinals. Louisville is shooting 47.3% from the field, 77.9% on free throws, and 36.1% on three pointers this season.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
The North Carolina Tar Heels are 21-6 (9-5) this year after they defeated Syracuse by a score of 77-64 in their last game. North Carolina led 33-28 at halftime and they scored 44 points in the second half in the win. The Tar Heels shot 52% from the field, 38% on three pointers, and 54% on free throws in the game. Henri Veesaar led UNC with 19 points and three rebounds, while Luka Bogavac added 13 points and six rebounds in the win.
Prior to that game, North Carolina lost to NC State by a score of 82-58, but did beat Pittsburgh by a score of 79-65 before that. The Tar Heels have scored 80.7 points per game with 38.8 rebounds and 16.3 assists per game, while they have allowed 70.6 points against per game this season. Caleb Wilson (out) is averaging 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, while Henri Veesaar is averaging 16.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game for the Tar Heels. North Carolina is shooting 47.2% from the field, 68.6% on free throws, and 33.6% on three pointers this year.
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- North Carolina has won each of its last 15 games at Dean E. Smith Center.
- Louisville has lost eight of its last nine February games as an AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
- Louisville has lost the first half in each of its last three games against teams with an AP Ranking of 16.
Why the Louisville Cardinals will win
- Louisville has won six of its last seven games.
- Louisville has won the first half in 10 of its last 12 February games as an AP-ranked team.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of North Carolina’s last 10 games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 161 or fewer points.
- Twenty-six of Louisville’s last 29 night games against the Atlantic Coast Conference have produced a total of 160 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- North Carolina ranks T14th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (15.4).
- North Carolina ranks 14th among Division 1 teams for turnover percentage this season (11.8%).
- Louisville ranks 12th among Division 1 teams for point differential per game this season (+15.0).
- Louisville ranks T14th among Division 1 teams for points per game this season (86.8).
Louisville vs North Carolina Prediction
North Carolina comes into this matchup after alternating wins and losses over their last five games and they are without Caleb Wilson, but they will be at home. The Tar Heels are shooting 47% from the field, but they have allowed at least 75 points in two of their last four games. Louisville is also 9-5 in conference play, but they have won six of their last seven games. The Cardinals are shooting 47% from the field and they have scored at least 82 points in five straight games. I think the loss of Wilson is too big of an issue against a solid team, so I will take Louisville here.
David Racey is 17-9 (65%) in College Basketball over the last two days. Click here for his premium plays for this today!