| MATCHUP | Liberty Flames | New Mexico State Aggies |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 20-3 | 11-12 |
| Spread | -3.5 -112 | +3.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | -175 | +145 |
| Total | Over 143.5 (-115) | Under 143.5 (-105) |
| Where | Pan American Center, Las Cruces, NM | |
| When | Wednesday, February 11, 2026 | |
| Time | 09:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
In this article, we will formulate a Liberty vs New Mexico State Prediction for this college basketball game on Wednesday, February 11th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this college basketball matchup.
New Mexico State Aggies Preview
The New Mexico State Aggies have an 11-12 overall record this season and a 4-9 record in the CUSA. They are coming off a 91-88 overtime road loss against UTEP and their previous four games were a 72-63 road win against Louisiana Tech, a 76-53 road loss against Kennesaw State, a 73-64 home win against Delaware and an 81-78 home loss against FIU.
Offensively, New Mexico State averages 75.7 points per game, while allowing 70.9 points per game defensively. The Aggies shoot with 44% from the field and grab 37.4 rebounds per game, while dishing out 13.5 assists per game. They average 3.3 blocks per game and 7.1 steals per game defensively.
Jemel Jones leads New Mexico State in scoring, with an average of 16.7 points per game, while shooting with 42.7% from the field and 83.8% from the free throw line. Julius Mims is the team’s leading rebounder with 8.5 per game. Gabe Pickens leads the team in assists made with 3 per game.
Liberty Flames Preview
The Liberty Flames have a 20-3 overall record this season and a 12-0 record in the CUSA. They are coming off a 79-76 home win against Missouri State and their previous four games were a 75-69 road win against Delaware, an 81-65 road win against Middle Tennessee State, a 67-51 home win against Delaware and a 76-69 road win against Western Kentucky.
Offensively, Liberty averages 79.3 points per game, while allowing 67.6 points per game defensively. The Flames shoot with 53% from the field and grab 30 rebounds per game, while dishing out 17.7 assists per game. They average 3.6 blocks per game and 6.6 steals per game defensively.
Brett Decker Jr. leads Liberty in scoring, with an average of 17.4 points per game, while shooting with 52.2% from the field and 81.6% from the free throw line. Zach Cleveland leads the team in rebounds and assists made with 7.8 rebounds per game and 7.3 assists per game.
Liberty Flames @ New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends: February 11, 2026
Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win
- New Mexico State has won nine of its last 11 games after coming off overtime.
- The home team has won the first half in each of the last four games between Liberty and New Mexico State.
Why the Liberty Flames will win
- Liberty has won each of its last 17 games against Conference opponents.
- New Mexico State has lost each of its last four home games.
- Liberty has won the first half in nine of its last 10 night games against Conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of Liberty’s last nine road games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 144+ points.
- Eight of New Mexico State’s last 10 home night games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 137 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- New Mexico State ranks 21st among Division 1 teams for opponent field goals made per game this season (22.6).
- New Mexico State ranks T33rd among Division 1 teams for opponent assists per game this season (11.2).
- Liberty has recorded the equal-longest road winning streak among Division 1 teams this season (7 games).
- Liberty ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for field goal percentage this season (52.6%).
Liberty vs New Mexico State Prediction
In this Liberty vs New Mexico State Prediction, Liberty is coming as -3.5 road favorites. Liberty has been the better team this season and has been almost perfect on the road with just one defeat in 8 road games. They have been scorching-hot with ten consecutive wins but just 5-5 against the spread, while New Mexico State has been struggling with a 2-7 record in its last 9 games and 1-5 against the spread. On top of that, Liberty has a top-30 defense in the entire nation so I expect them to take care of business on the road and cover the spread.