Liberty vs Dayton Prediction 12/20/2025 Today’s College Basketball Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Nov 28, 2025; Kissimmee, FL, USA; =Dayton Flyers guard Javon Bennett (0) controls the ball against the Brigham Young University Cougars in the first half during the ESPN Events Invitational at State Farm Field House. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Liberty Flames
Dayton Flyers
Team Records
7-3
9-3
Spread
+9.5 -102
-9.5 -118
Moneyline
+425
-575
Total
Over 142.5 (-112)
Under 142.5 (-108)
Where
UD Arena, Dayton, OH
When
Saturday, December 20, 2025
Time
12:30 PM EST
TV
USA Net
The Liberty Flames and the Dayton Flyers meet Saturday in college basketball action from the UD Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Liberty Flames vs. Dayton Flyers prediction.
Liberty Flames Recap
The Liberty Flames come into this game looking to build on their 95-57 win over subdivision Midway last time out to improve to 7-3 this season. After this game, Liberty will head on the road for a game against FIU.
Flames Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight
Brett Decker Jr. leads the Flames in scoring with 18.1 PPG along with 3 RPG while Kaden Metheny has 13 PPG with 2.7 RPG and 3.2 APG as well this season. Colin Porter has 10.4 PPG with 2.4 RPG and 3.4 APG while JJ Harper has 11 PPG with 3.6 RPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Liberty so far this season. Zach Cleveland has 9.1 PPG along with team-highs of 8.8 RPG and 8 APG to lead the Flames in rebounding and assists so far this season. As a team, Liberty is averaging 81.8 PPG on 53.7% shooting from the field, 41% from three and 62.9% from the foul line this season.
Dayton Flyers Recap
The Dayton Flyers come into this game looking to add on to their 97-69 win over Florida State last time out to sit at 9-3 this season. After this game, Dayton will head home for a game against Fordham.
Flyers Win Back-To-Back Games
Javon Bennett leads the Flyers in scoring and assists with 16.4 PPG and 3.1 APG while De’Shayne Montgomery has 16.4 PPG with 4.8 RPG and 2.8 APG along with 2.8 SPG. Amael L’Etang has 12.3 PPG along with 6.6 RPG to lead Dayton in rebounding and to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Dayton so far this season. Keonte Jones also has 8.4 PPG with 4.8 RPG as well up to this point in the year. As a team, Dayton is averaging 81.2 PPG on 46.8% shooting from the field, 32.4% from three and 72.9% from the foul line this season.
Liberty Flames @ Dayton Flyers Betting Trends: December 20, 2025
Why the Dayton Flyers will win
Dayton has won each of its last 32 games against non-Conference opponents at University of Dayton Arena.
Liberty has lost three of its last four games against non-Conference opponents.
Dayton has won the first half in each of its last seven games at University of Dayton Arena.
Why the Liberty Flames will win
Liberty has won each of its last six Saturday games.
Liberty has won the first half in 30 of its last 36 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Total Points Facts
Each of Liberty’s last four games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 142 or fewer points.
Six of Dayton’s last seven day games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 146+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
Dayton ranks 8th among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (17.7).
Dayton ranks 14th among Division 1 teams for opponent assist to turnover ratio this season (0.70).
Liberty ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for assist to turnover ratio this season (2.04).
Liberty ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for field goal percentage this season (53.7%).
Liberty Flames vs. Dayton Flyers Prediction
I’m going to lean towards Dayton here. I know Dayton’s coming off of the huge win over Florida State, but last time Liberty was on the road, they were absolutely bullied by NC State and while Dayton isn’t NC State, this is still a solid Flyers team and Liberty’s 3-point variance can come back and bite them in the butt on any given night. I’ll roll with Dayton in this one.
