| MATCHUP | Illinois State Redbirds | Dayton Flyers |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 22-12 | 25-11 |
| Spread | +7.5 -108 | -7.5 -112 |
| Moneyline | +260 | -325 |
| Total | Over 139.5 (-105) | Under 139.5 (-115) |
| Where | Dayton Stadium | |
| When | Wednesday, March 25, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN2 | |
Dayton Flyers Preview
The Dayton Flyers have a 25-11 overall record and a 12-6 record in the A-10. They are coming off an 80-61 road win against UNC Wilmington and their previous three games were an 80-66 road win against Bradley, a 70-62 loss against VCU and a 70-69 win against Saint Louis.
Offensively, Dayton averages 74.7 points per game, while allowing 69.5 points per game defensively. The Flyers shoot with 45% from the field and grab 32.8 rebounds per game, while dishing out 14.3 assists per game. They average 3.9 blocks per game and 8.2 steals per game defensively.
Javon Bennett leads Dayton in scoring, with an average of 16.3 points per game, while shooting with 39.6% from the field and 89.8% from the free throw line, adding a team-high 3 assists. Amaël L’Etang is the team’s leading rebounder with 5.9 per game.
Illinois State Redbirds Preview
The Illinois State Redbirds have a 22-12 overall record and a 12-8 record in the MVC. They are coming off a 78-75 road win against Wake Forest and their previous three games were a 79-58 win against Kent State, a 74-52 loss against Northern Iowa and an 81-74 win against Belmont.
Offensively, Illinois State averages 75.3 points per game, while allowing 68.3 points per game defensively. The Redbirds shoot with 46% from the field and grab 35.8 rebounds per game, while dishing out 13.7 assists per game. They average 2.3 blocks per game and 5.8 steals per game defensively.
Chase Walker leads Illinois State in scoring, with an average of 13.7 points per game, while shooting with 53.5% from the field and 71.7% from the free throw line, adding a team-high 5.3 rebounds. Johnny Kinziger leads the team in assists with 3.3 per game.
Illinois State Redbirds @ Dayton Flyers Betting Trends: March 25, 2026
Why the Dayton Flyers will win
- Dayton has won each of its last 21 night games against non-Conference opponents at University of Dayton Arena.
- Illinois State has lost four of its last five games against the Atlantic 10 Conference.
- Dayton has won the first half in each of its last nine night games against non-Conference opponents.
Why the Illinois State Redbirds will win
- Illinois State has won nine of its last 10 night games against non-Conference opponents.
- Illinois State has won the first half in each of its last six Wednesday night games against non-Conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Dayton’s last nine night games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 141+ points.
- Six of Illinois State’s last seven night games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 140+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Dayton ranks 16th among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (18.8).
- Dayton ranks 17th among Division 1 teams for opponent assist to turnover ratio this season (0.85).
- Illinois State ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (68.4%).
- Illinois State ranks T37th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (6.5).
Illinois State vs Dayton Prediction
In this Illinois State vs Dayton Prediction, Dayton is coming as -7.5 home favorites. Dayton has been red-hot with an 8-2 record in its last 10 games but is just 3-3 against the spread in its last 6. Illinois State is also in good form, with a 4-1 record both straight up and against the spread in its last 5 games and has been slightly better both offensively and defensively this season, so they are being undervalued in this spot. I expect Illinois State to keep this one kinda close, so get the +7.5 with the Redbirds in this one.