| MATCHUP | Florida State Seminoles | North Carolina Tar Heels |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 7-6 | 12-1 |
| Spread | +13.5 -105 | -13.5 -115 |
| Moneyline | +800 | -1350 |
| Total | Over 161.5 (-115) | Under 161.5 (-105) |
| Where | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC | |
| When | Tuesday, December 30, 2025 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN2 | |
The Florida State Seminoles and the North Carolina Tar Heels meet Tuesday in college basketball action from Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill. Here’s a Florida State vs North Carolina prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Florida State vs North Carolina pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview
The Seminoles won five of their first six games this year, taking out Alcorn State, Alabama State, TN-Martin, Georgia Southern and CSU Bakersfield with a lone loss to Florida. After losses to Texas A&M, Georgia, Houston, UMass and Dayton, the Seminoles have since recovered with wins over MS Valley State and Jacksonville for a 7-6 overall record in 13 games this year.
In the Jacksonville game on December 22, the Seminoles were up 43-21 going into the second half. Florida State hit a 44-42 run the rest of the way, closing out an 87-63 win in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Martin Somerville with 23 points, four rebounds and two assists while Chauncey Wiggins added 16 points and three boards. Thomas Bassong had 13 points with eight boards as well.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
Over on the Tar Heels’ side, they beat Central Arkansas, Kansas, Radford, NC Central, Navy and St. Bonaventure in their first six games before a loss to Michigan State. UNC has since beaten Kentucky, Georgetown, USC Upstate, East Tennessee State, Ohio State and East Carolina since then. That gives the Tar Heels a 12-1 run over the first 13 outings.
In the East Carolina matchup on December 22, North Carolina held a 49-26 edge at the start of the second half. After a 50-25 run the rest of the way, the Tar Heels had a 99-51 win in the end. Caleb Wilson led the team with 21 points and 12 rebounds, while Henri Veesaar also doubled up on 16 points and 10 rebounds. Luka Bogavac added 15 points with four rebounds as well.
Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Trends: December 30, 2025
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- North Carolina has won each of its last 14 night games at Dean E. Smith Center against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Florida State has lost each of its last seven night games against AP-ranked opponents.
- Florida State has lost the first half in seven of its last eight games against AP-ranked opponents.
Why the Florida State Seminoles will win
- Florida State has won four of its last five night games following a home win.
Florida State vs North Carolina Prediction
I’ll stick with North Carolina. The Tar Heels didn’t have too many issues with East Carolina in their last outing, shooting a nice 54 percent from the field with a 43-31 rebounding edge and a 40-30 advantage on points in the paint alongside 20 team assists. UNC held the Pirates to just 26 percent shooting on the other side. That makes six straight wins for the Tar Heels, with 71 or more points in each of the last five.
As for Florida State, they handled Jacksonville pretty well in their last game thanks to 45.9 percent shooting, 41 rebounds and just eight turnovers. The Seminoles have scored a combined 183 points in their last two games, but those have both been against some pretty flimsy competition. Tuesday’s game will obviously be much tougher.