Dayton vs UNC Wilmington Prediction 3/21/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

Andrew Jett

3 hours ago

Mar 16, 2017; Orlando, FL, USA; The North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks cheerleader perform during the second half against the Virginia Cavaliers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Dayton Flyers	UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Team Records	24-11	27-6
Spread	-2.5 -110	+2.5 -110
Moneyline	-142	+120
Total	Over 139.5 (-105)	Under 139.5 (-115)
Where	UNC Wilmington Stadium
When	Saturday, March 21, 2026
Time	07:00 PM EDT
TV	ESPN+

The Dayton Flyers and the UNC Wilmington Seahawks meet Saturday in NIT college basketball action from Trask Coliseum in Wilmington. Here’s a Dayton vs UNC Wilmington prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Dayton vs UNC Wilmington pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Dayton Flyers Betting Preview

The Flyers were looking pretty good through their first 18 games on a 14-4 record, but then hit the skids with losses to La Salle, Saint Joseph’s, Rhode Island, Saint Louis and VCU over the next six games. Dayton would recover with wins over Davidson, George Mason, Duquesne, Saint Louis, George Washington, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, St. Louis and Bradley from there.

In the Bradley game during the first round of the NIT on Wednesday the Flyers came back out onto the court after the break with a 47-30 advantage on the scoreboard. Dayton was outscored 36-33 the rest of the way but held on for the double-digit victory 80-66 in the end. Javon Bennett posted 25 points with two assists to lead the team and De’Shayne Montgomery added 14 points.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks Betting Preview

Over on the UNC Wilmington side, they kicked off their year on a 17-2 run. The next four were a 2-2 stretch with losses to William & Mary (twice) then came wins over Charleston, Elon, Hofstra, Monmouth, Campbell and North Carolina A&T. It’s been a 2-2 stretch again since then with losses to Charleston and Campbell alongside wins over Elon and Yale for a 27-6 overall record.

Matched up against Yale back on Tuesday in NIT action, the Seahawks faced a six-point deficit in the locker room. UNC Wilmington came back on a 42-36 run the rest of the way, eventually powering out the victory 68-67 to keep their season alive. Christian May led the team with 16 points, eight rebounds and two assists while both Nolan Hodge and Madison Durr added 13 points each.

Dayton Flyers @ North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks Betting Trends: March 21, 2026

Why the North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks will win

North Carolina-Wilmington has won each of its last six night games against non-Conference opponents.

Why the Dayton Flyers will win

Dayton has won each of its last four night games against non-Conference opponents.
North Carolina-Wilmington has lost each of its last three night games against the Atlantic 10 Conference.
North Carolina-Wilmington has lost the first half in each of its last three games against the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Total Points Facts

Seven of Dayton’s last eight games have produced a total of 139 or fewer points.
Five of North Carolina-Wilmington’s last six night games against non-AP-ranked opponents at Raiford G. Trask Coliseum have produced a total of 148+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

North Carolina-Wilmington ranks 22nd among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (54.8%).
North Carolina-Wilmington ranks 24th among Division 1 teams for opponent assists per game this season (10.9).
Dayton ranks T16th among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (19.0).
Dayton ranks 20th among Division 1 teams for free throw attempts per game this season (25.3).

Dayton vs UNC Wilmington Prediction

I’ll lean toward Dayton. The Flyers didn’t have a ton of issues with Bradley in their latest win, posting 52.1 percent shooting from the field and 50 percent (9-of-18) from outside along with 84 percent (21-of-25) at the line. Dayton added just four turnovers and a 28-22 edge in the paint but did get outmuscled in the boards 29-24. The Flyers are 3-2 over their last five games and they’re not scoring spectacularly lately. Prior to the win over Bradley, Dayton was below 71 points in six straight. The defense is taking care of business, though.

As for UNC Wilmington, they shot just 36.2 percent from the field and 57.1 percent (8-of-14) from the line in their win over Yale, getting outscored in the paint 34-26 along the way. The Seahawks held the Bulldogs to just 37.3 percent shooting though, and were helped out by an ugly 40.9 percent (9-of-22) at the line by Yale. That gives UNC Wilmington a 2-2 stretch in the last four but they’ve hit 70 or more points in three of those. I like Dayton to keep this total relatively low and power one out.