CSU Bakersfield vs UC Santa Barbara Prediction 3/12/25 College Basketball Picks

The Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners are facing the UCSB Gauchos on Wednesday, March 12th at the Lee’s Family Forum, in this Big West first-round matchup between the 5th seed and the 8th seed of the conference. The winner of this single-elimination game will face Cal State Northridge in the quarterfinals on Thursday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners vs UCSB Gauchos Prediction. We will examine:

The UCSB Gauchos’ recent form and player performance

The Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the UCSB Gauchos

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

Recent betting trends in games played between the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners and UCSB Gauchos

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners vs UCSB Gauchos game

UCSB Gauchos Preview

The UCSB Gauchos finished the regular season with a 19-12 record and were placed 5th in the Big West. The Gauchos are coming off an 88-97 loss to UC Irvine. The Gauchos are 12-17 against the spread, and 14-15 in over/under.

Offensively, UCSB is averaging 75.1 points per game, which ranks 146th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 68.8 points per game (85th). The Gauchos shoot 47.4% from the field (52nd) and 39.4% from beyond the arc, which is the 6th-best in the nation. The Gauchos shoot 76.4% from the free-throw line (41st) and are grabbing 34 rebounds per game (253rd). 

Stephan Swenson leads UCSB in scoring this season, with an average of 13 points, 3.6 rebounds, and a team-high 4.4 assists, while Kenny Pohto adds 11.9 points and a team-high 6.3 rebounds per game.

Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners Preview

The Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners finished the regular season with a 14-18 record and were placed 8th in the Big West. The Roadrunners are coming off a 76-64 win over Hawaii. The Roadrunners are 11-18-1 against the spread and 18-11-1 in over/under. 

Offensively, Cal State Bakersfield is averaging 74 points per game, which ranks 177th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 73.7 points per game (235th). The Roadrunners shoot 43.9% from the field (234th) and 38.3% from beyond the arc, which is the 18th-best in the nation. The Roadrunners shoot 77.1% from the free-throw line (34th) and are grabbing 35.4 rebounds per game (174th).

Jemel Jones leads Cal State Bakersfield in scoring this season, with an average of 19.1 points and 3.6 rebounds, while Corey Stephenson adds 11.4 points and a team-high 5.5 rebounds per game.

Why the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos will win

• UC Santa Barbara has won each of its last 11 games against Cal State Bakersfield.
• Cal State Bakersfield has lost seven of its last nine Conference Tournament games.
• UC Santa Barbara has won the first half in nine of its last 10 games against Cal State Bakersfield.

Why the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners will win

• Cal State Bakersfield has won the first half in each of its last three games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.

Matchup/League Facts

• UC Santa Barbara ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent blocks per game this season (1.9).
• UC Santa Barbara ranks 361st among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (77.1%).
• Cal State Bakersfield ranks 361st among Division 1 teams for assists per game this season (10.1).
• Cal State Bakersfield ranks 357th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throws made per game this season (17.6).

Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners vs UCSB Gauchos Prediction

UCSB Gauchos have won their last 10 meetings against Cal State Bakersfield, and are 8-2 against the spread. Over/Under is 5-5 in their last 10 meetings. UCSB has won both meetings against Cal State Bakersfield this season. At home by 78-66 and on the road by 81-75, covering the spread in both, as both games went over the point total.

In this Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners vs UCSB Gauchos Prediction, UCSB is coming as -4.5-point favorites. UCSB is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and had 7 wins outside their home court, while Cal State Bakersfield had only four. Neither team has been in good form lately, as UCSB is 3-4 in their last 7 games and 1-3 against the spread, while Cal State Bakersfield is 4-6 in their last 10 games and 1-3 against the spread. Both have been playing some higher-scoring games lately, as they are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games combined, and both of their meetings this season also went over the point total. I expect another high-scoring affair, so give me the over.   

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 143