| MATCHUP | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC San Diego Tritons |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 13-16 | 20-9 |
| Where | LionTree Arena, San Diego, CA | |
| When | Saturday, February 28, 2026 | |
| Time | 10:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
UC San Diego Tritons Preview
The UC San Diego Tritons have a 20-9 overall record and a 10-7 record in the Big West. They are coming off an 84-72 home win against Cal State Bakersfield and their previous three games were a 71-69 road win against UC Irvine, a 72-66 home win against UC Riverside and a 68-51 home win against UC Davis.
Offensively, UC San Diego averages 76.4 points per game, while allowing 70.3 points per game defensively. The Tritons shoot with 46% from the field and grab 37.3 rebounds per game, while dishing out 14.8 assists per game. They average 2.7 blocks per game and 7.5 steals per game defensively.
Leo Beath leads UC San Diego in scoring, with an average of 12.6 points per game, while shooting with 43.9% from the field and 75% from the free throw line. Hudson Mayes is the team’s leading rebounder with 5.8 per game. Emanuel Prospere II leads the team in assists with 3.3 per game.
Cal Poly Mustangs Preview
The Cal Poly Mustangs have a 13-16 overall record and a 9-8 record in the Big West. They are coming off a 102-92 home win against Long Beach State and their previous three games were an 86-75 road win against Hawaii, an 89-79 home win against UC Santa Barbara and a 79-73 home win against UC Irvine.
Offensively, Cal Poly averages 82.2 points per game, while allowing 85.2 points per game defensively. The Mustangs shoot with 44% from the field and grab 37.8 rebounds per game, while dishing out 13.2 assists per game. They average 2.3 blocks per game and 6.7 steals per game defensively.
Hamad Mousa leads Cal Poly in scoring, with an average of 20.5 points per game, while shooting with 44.2% from the field and 87.5% from the free throw line, adding a team-high 6.1 rebounds. Peter Bandelj leads the team in assists with 3.3 per game.
Cal Poly Mustangs @ UC San Diego Tritons Betting Trends: February 28, 2026
Why the UC San Diego Tritons will win
- Cal Poly has lost each of its last 17 Saturday night road games against Conference opponents.
- UC San Diego has won each of its last four games.
- Cal Poly has lost the first half in each of its last eight Saturday night road games against Conference opponents.
Why the Cal Poly Mustangs will win
- Cal Poly has won each of its last four games.
- The road team has won the first half in eight of Cal Poly’s last nine games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of UC San Diego’s last 11 games have produced a total of 156 or fewer points.
- Twenty of Cal Poly’s last 21 Saturday night games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 162 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- UC San Diego ranks 48th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal percentage this season (41.5%).
- Cal Poly ranks 364th among Division 1 teams for turnovers per game this season (15.6).
- Cal Poly ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for pace this season (75.4).
Cal Poly vs UC San Diego Prediction
In this Cal Poly vs UC San Diego Prediction, UC San Diego is coming as -6.5 home favorites. UC San Diego has been the better team this season but both teams are coming into this matchup in very good form, as they both have won their last four games. They both also have almost identical ATS records this season, so I see no value on either side. Taking a look at the total, both teams are 10-4 to the under in their last 14 games combined and their previous meeting earlier this season was also a low-scoring one, so take the under 163 points in this one.