St. Mary's (5-0) vs Cal Poly (3-3)
Game Info: Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 8:00 pm (University Credit Union Pavilion)
The Line: Betting Odds: St. Mary's -22.5 / Cal Poly — Over/Under: 150
The Cal Poly Mustangs are visiting the Mount St. Mary’s Gaels on Saturday, November 23rd at the University Credit Union Pavilion. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cal Poly Mustangs vs Mount St. Mary’s Gaels Prediction.
Mount St. Mary’s Gaels Preview
The Mount St. Mary’s Gaels have a perfect 5-0 record this season and are coming off a 78-38 win over CSU. The Gaels are 1-3 against the spread, and 4-0 in over/under while having a 4-0 home record.
Offensively, Mount St. Mary’s is averaging 72 points per game, which ranks 268th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 74.8 points per game (252nd). The Gaels shoot 43.3% from the field (249th) and 31.2% from beyond the arc (250th). The Gaels shoot 69.2% from the free-throw line (217th) and are grabbing 40.6 rebounds per game (87th).
Dallas Hobbs leads Mount St. Mary’s in scoring this season, with an average of 15.4 points and 4.8 rebounds, while Terrell Ard adds 11 points and a team-high 8 rebounds.
Cal Poly Mustangs Preview
The Cal Poly Mustangs have a 3-3 record this season and are coming off an 89-93 loss to Arizona State. The Mustangs are 4-1 against the spread, and 4-1 in over/under while having a 1-3 road record.
Offensively, Cal Poly is averaging 82.7 points per game, which ranks 102nd in the nation. Defensively, they allow 80.8 points per game (334th). The Mustangs shoot 47.9% from the field (101st) and 34.6% from beyond the arc (157th). The Mustangs shoot 72.7% from the free-throw line (134th) and are grabbing 37 rebounds per game (208th).
Jarred Hyder leads Cal Poly in scoring with an average of 15.5 points and 3.5 rebounds, while Owen Koonce adds 13.2 points and 4.3 rebounds. Cal Poly will face Grambling and Stanford following this one.
Why the Saint Mary’s Gaels will win
- Saint Mary’s has won each of its last 12 games at University Credit Union Pavilion against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Cal Poly has lost each of its last 26 Saturday day games.
- Saint Mary’s has won the first half in each of its last 16 games at University Credit Union Pavilion against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why the Cal Poly Mustangs will win
- Saint Mary’s has lost each of its last three day games at University Credit Union Pavilion following a home win.
- Cal Poly has won three of its last four games.
- Cal Poly has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Saint Mary’s’ last 13 day games against non-conference opponents at University Credit Union Pavilion has produced a total of 144 or fewer points.
- Thirty-eight of Cal Poly’s last 43 day games have produced a total of 147 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Saint Mary’s ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (59.8%).
- Saint Mary’s ranks T12th among Division 1 teams for opponent rebounds per game this season (28.8).
- Cal Poly ranks 363rd among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (11.7).
- Cal Poly ranks 9th among Division 1 teams for pace this season (76.8).
Cal Poly Mustangs vs Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers Prediction
St. Mary’s leads Cal Poly 6-1 in their previous 7 meetings. In this Cal Poly Mustangs vs Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers Prediction, St. Mary’s is coming as a -22.5 favorite. The Mustangs are scoring 10 points more than the Gaels this season, and are in the top half of the nation in all shooting percentages. On the other hand, St Mary’s only have a better defense, allowing 6 points less than Cal Poly, but are struggling with their shooting, almost cracking the bottom-100 nationally both in field goal and in 3-point percentage. The value here is with the road favorite, so pick the Cal Poly Mustangs and lay the plus points on the road.