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Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction 3/10/25 College Basketball Picks
Pick details
Troy (22-10) vs Arkansas State (24-9)
March 10, 2025 at 07:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Troy +1.5 — Over/Under: 138.5
The Arkansas State Red Wolves and Troy Trojans meet Monday in the college basketball Sun Belt Final at the Pensacola Bay Center. Here’s an Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction. This article will include an Arkansas State vs Troy Pick.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview
The Arkansas State Red Wolves recently beat UL Monroe, Louisiana, and South Alabama. Arkansas State has won 13 of its last 17 games.
The Arkansas State Red Wolves are averaging 79.4 points on 42.7 percent shooting and allowing 69.3 points on 40 percent shooting. Taryn Todd is averaging 15.1 points and 4.6 rebounds, while Joseph Pinion is averaging 12.3 points and 1.2 assists. Kobe Julien is the third double-digit scorer and Izaiyah Nelson is grabbing 8.8 rebounds. The Arkansas State Red Wolves are shooting 32 percent from beyond the arc and 72.9 percent from the free throw line. The Arkansas State Red Wolves are allowing 30.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 38.4 rebounds per game.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
The Troy Trojans are coming off wins over Coastal Carolina, Texas State, Southern Miss, Old Dominion, and James Madison. Troy has won five straight games and 11 of its last 14 games overall.
The Troy Trojans are averaging 73 points on 43.6 percent shooting and allowing 65.3 points on 41 percent shooting. Tayton Conerway is averaging 13.8 points and 4.9 assists, while Myles Rigsby is averaging 12 points and 4.2 rebounds. Thomas Dowd is dishing 1 assist and Jackson Fields is grabbing 4.7 rebounds. The Troy Trojans are shooting 29.9 percent from beyond the arc and 71 percent from the free throw line. The Troy Trojans are allowing 32.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 35.2 rebounds per game.
Why the Troy Trojans will win
- Arkansas State has lost eight of its last nine night games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
- Troy has won seven of its last eight games against the Sun Belt Conference.
- Arkansas State has lost the first half in 10 of its last 13 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win
- Arkansas State has won each of its last five games against the Sun Belt Conference.
Total Points Facts
- Twelve of Arkansas State’s last 13 games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 141+ points.
- Nine of Troy’s last 10 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 139+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Troy ranks 25th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal percentage this season (40.3%).
- Troy ranks 26th among Division 1 teams for blocks per game this season (4.8).
- Arkansas State ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for field goal attempts per game this season (64.0).
- Arkansas State ranks 17th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal percentage this season (40.0%).
Arkansas State vs Troy Injury Report
Neither Arkansas State nor Troy has a player listed on its injury report.
Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction
Arkansas State and Troy split the two games this season with the road team winning both games. The underdog has covered six of the last eight games between Arkansas State and Troy. You can make a case for the Red Wolves here. However, I was on James Madison yesterday and Troy took control of that game early and never looked back. It turned me into a believer. Troy is locked in on both ends of the floor and has allowed 60 or fewer points in three straight games. Troy is also 19-11 ATS on the season. I like Troy to make its third NCAA Tournament in school history and first since 2017.
