| MATCHUP | Air Force Falcons | Nevada Wolf Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 3-28 | 20-11 |
| Spread | +20.5 -110 | -20.5 -110 |
| Moneyline | +1700 | -4500 |
| Total | Over 139.5 (-115) | Under 139.5 (-105) |
| Where | Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV | |
| When | Wednesday, March 11, 2026 | |
| Time | 05:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | MWN | |
The Air Force Falcons and the Nevada Wolf Pack meet Wednesday in Mountain West Tournament college basketball action from Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Here’s an Air Force vs Nevada prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Air Force vs Nevada pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview
The Falcons lost their first four games of the season, then managed to win three straight back in November. Air Force has been on an ugly skid since then however, losing to teams like Northern Colorado, Pacific, Navy, Wyoming, UNLV, San Jose State, Nevada, Colorado State, Boise State, Fresno State and Grand Canyon in that time. So far the Falcons are just 3-28 overall.
In the Nevada matchup back on Saturday the Falcons were exiting the floor after the first half with a deficit 32-25. Air Force didn’t end up getting any closer than that on a 42-34 run the rest of the way and took the loss 74-59 in the end. Kam Sanders led the way on 14 points with three assists and three steals while Eli Robinson added 12 points and four boards.
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview
Over on the Nevada side, they opened the year on an 11-4 run then took wins versus Wyoming, Air Force, San Jose STate, Grand Canyon, UNLV and Fresno State over the next 11 outings. The last five games have been a spotty 3-2 run with wins over Utah State, New Mexico and Air Force mixed among losses to UNLV and Wyoming. That makes for a 20-11 record this year.
In their win over Air Force last weekend, the Wolf Pack were led by Corey Camper with his 18 points, four rebounds and three assists with two blocks. Elijah Price added 13 points with five rebounds and Tayshawn Comer put up 11 points with three assists and two rebounds for the Wolf Pack. Vaughn Weems chipped in 10 points with three boards in 26 minutes as well.
Air Force Falcons @ Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Trends: March 11, 2026
Why the Nevada Wolf Pack will win
- Air Force has lost each of its last 25 games against the Mountain West Conference.
- Nevada has won each of its last eight games against Air Force.
- Nevada has won the first half in each of its last three games against Air Force.
Why the Air Force Falcons will win
- Nevada has lost four of its last five games against Conference opponents at Thomas & Mack Center.
Matchup/League Facts
- Nevada ranks 35th among Division 1 teams for turnovers per game this season (9.8).
- Nevada ranks 39th among Division 1 teams for turnover percentage this season (12.6%).
- Air Force ranks 364th among Division 1 teams for points per game this season (62.1).
- Air Force ranks 364th among Division 1 teams for point differential per game this season (-17.8).
Air Force vs Nevada Prediction
I’ll stick with Nevada. The Wolf Pack has won both meetings between these teams so far this year: 81-66 on the road January 17 and 74-59 at home on March 7. In the road win the Wolf Pack shot a nice 52.9 percent from the field with 53.3 percent (8-of-15) from outside. Nevada added a 36-19 rebounding edge but did have 14 turnovers along the way.
Last weekend Nevada shot 48.2 percent from the field in their win over Air Force but only hit 4-of-18 (22.2 percent) from outside. The Wolfpack made up for it with a 35-19 rebounding edge, however they did get outscored in the paint 46-40. Nevada is 3-2 in their last five games but they’ve hit 73 or more points in four of those.