UCSB vs Baylor Prediction - Basketball Picks 3/17/23

Baylor Bears (22-10) vs UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (27-6)

Game Info: Friday, March 17, 2023 at 1:30 pm (Ball Arena)

Betting Odds: Baylor Bears -10.5 -- Over/Under: 141.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Baylor Bears will play the UCSB Gauchos in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in the South Region at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

Baylor Preview

The Baylor Bears are 22-10 (11-7) this season after they lost to Iowa State by a score of 78-72 in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Baylor really struggled to end the season and has lost four of their last six games. The Baylor Bears are averaging 77.2 points per game, 70.3 points against per game, 34.3 rebounds per game, and 14.5 assists per game. Keyonte George has led the Bears this season with 15.8 points per game, 4.2 rebounds per game, and 2.8 assists per game. Baylor is shooting 44.7% from the field, 74.9% on free throws, and 37.2% on three pointers this year. 

UCSB Preview

The UCSB Gauchos are 27-7 (15-5) this season after they defeated Cal State Fullerton by a score of 72-62 in the Championship Game of the Big West Tournament. UCSB finished the regular season on a seven game winning streak, tied for first in the regular season standings in the Big West, and won the conference tournament. UCSB is averaging 72.2 points per game, 65.6 points against per game, 32.1 rebounds per game, and 14.2 assists per game. Ajay Mitchell has led the Gauchos this season with 16.4 points per game, 5.1 assists per game, and 2.7 rebounds per game. UCSB is shooting 49.3% from the field, 72.8% on free throws, and 35.3% on three pointers this year. 

Trends

UCSB is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games. The over is 14-2 in UCSB’s last 16 games. Baylor is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Friday games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games. The over is 6-1 in Baylor’s last 7 games following a loss. 

Pick

Baylor finished their season by losing back to back games against Iowa State, which is definitely a big red flag coming into this matchup. UCSB has been playing very well and has won seven games in a row, but they did play in a much easier conference than Baylor did. UCSB is shooting 49.4% from the field and is only allowing 65.6 points against per game. I think the Gauchos are going to give Baylor all they can handle, so I like UCSB with the points. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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