Louisville vs Virginia Prediction - Basketball Picks 3/4/23

Virginia Cavaliers (22-6) vs Louisville Cardinals (4-26)

Game Info: Saturday, March 4, 2023 at 2:00 pm (John Paul Jones Arena)

Betting Odds: Virginia Cavaliers -19 -- Over/Under: 129 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Louisville Cardinals will head up to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers in ACC play from the John Paul Jones Arena on ESPN2. UVA leads the all-time series, 20-4, after winning the last six meetings.

Louisville dropped to 4-26 after losing to Virginia Tech at home. The Cardinals were outscored in both halves and handed a 17-point loss by the Hokies, 71-54. Louisville is scoring 64.1 points per game, while allowing 75.7 ppg, and shooting 42.2% from the field.

Louisville’s season of misery has finally approached its close, and it’s unclear what time will show up in the mountains this weekend. The Cardinals are 2-17 in ACC play, with a 14-1 home record. Senior guard El Ellis scored 21 points in first meeting with UVA, and he leads the team in scoring (17.8) and assists (4.2). Freshman swingman Mike James scored 14 points versus both technical schools, and he’s now second on the team at 9.7 ppg. 

Virginia improved to 22-6 after beating Clemson in Charlottesville. The Cavaliers controlled the lead throughout the contest to defeat the Tigers by seven, 64-57. UVA is scoring 67.5 points per game, while allowing 60.5 ppg, shooting 44.5% from the floor.

Virginia dropped both games last week, and after falling out of the AP top ten polls, they’ll look to close strong with two games at home. The Cavaliers are 14-5 in ACC play, with a 14-1 home record. Senior forward Jayden Gardner posted a 19-point double-double against UNC last week, and he’s now averaging 11.6 ppg and 5.5 rpg. Fifth-year starter Kihei Clark will say goodbye to the UVA faithful this weekend, and he’s posting personal-bests in scoring (11.3) and assists (5.7) this season. Fellow senior guard Armaan Franklin leads UVA in scoring at 12.4 ppg after a 23-point performance against Duke. 

Louisville is 12-18 against the spread this season, with a 14-15-1 over/under record. Virginia is 10-16-2 ATS this year, with a 14-14 o/u record.

This spot with Louisville was intended to serve as a calm finish to another regular season title winning season for the Cavs, and while this contest should still be a light ending to the year, they will need some help from Pitt in South Beach. With a conference crown still within reach, all UVA has to do here is win this ball game and hope for the best. There’s no upset potential here for a Louisville team looking to turn the page on a rough four-win season, but with an emotional senior night ahead , they might be able to capitalize on the generous underdog margin. The Cards will also have the opportunity to play spoiler in the conference title picture, so while Virginia should win this game, I like Louisville spread for this ACC clash.

Corey’s Pick Louisville +19

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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