Arkansas State at Troy Prediction - Basketball Picks 3/2/23

Troy Trojans (19-12) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves (13-19)

Game Info: Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 3:00 pm (Pensacola Bay Center)

Betting Odds: Troy Trojans -8 -- Over/Under: 132.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Troy Trojans will meet in the second round of the Sun Belt Championship from the Pensacola Bay Center on ESPN+. Troy leads the all-time series, 16-11, after winning the last three meetings.

Arkansas State finished at 13-19 after defeating Coastal Carolina in Conway. The Red Wolves pulled away from the Chanticleers in the second half to win by seventeen, 86-69. Arkansas State is scoring 65.9 points per game, while allowing 67.8 ppg, and shooting 43.2% from the field.

Arkansas State endured a rough 2023, dropped 14 of their last 17 games, and they’ll look to avoid falling to Troy for the third time this year. Senior forward Omar El-Sheikh makes a difference inside, and after double-doubling in five of the last six games, he leads ASU in scoring (12.5) and rebounding (9.7). Freshman guard Terrance Ford Jr. scored a game-high 25 points in the win over Coastal Carolina, and he’s up to 10.8 ppg.

Troy closed at 19-12 following a home win over Coastal Carolina. The Trojans also finished the year with a win over the Chanticleers after jumping out to a fast start, 95-74. Troy is scoring 73.5 points per game, while allowing 66.8 ppg, and shooting 44.6% from the field.

Troy closed the season by winning six of their last seven games, and they come into this matchup with a lot of momentum. Senior forward Zay Williams double-doubled in recent wins over ULM and ULL, and he leads the Trojans in scoring (12.1) and rebounding (7.0). Junior guard Christyon Eugene scored a team-high 19 points in the win over Coastal last time out, and he’s averaging an identical 11.8 ppg. 

Arkansas State is 13-15-1 against the spread this season, with a 12-17 over/under record. Troy is 14-13-1 ATS this year, with a 13-12-3 o/u record.

Troy comes into an ideal spot to advance to the next round after closing the regular season on a strong note, while their opponents have struggled all season. Arkansas State’s season should end Wednesday afternoon, and it will come down to the Trojans holding the fort on the margin. Take Troy’s spread for this first round matchup.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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