Louisville at Mississippi State: 11/25/21 College Basketball Picks and Prediction

Louisville at Mississippi State: 11/25/21 College Basketball Picks and Prediction Photo by Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) vs Louisville Cardinals (3-1)

Game Info: Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 9:30 pm (Baha Mar Convention Center)

Betting Odds: Mississippi State Bulldogs -1 -- Over/Under: 132 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Louisville Cardinals & Mississippi State Bulldogs will square off at the Baha Mar Convention Center this Thursday night in the Bahamas Championship.

The Louisville Cardinals won their 2nd straight game and improved to 3-1 on the season after defeating the Detroit Mercy Titans, 73-67, this past Saturday. Louisville allowed Detroit to tie game late after holding a 49-35 lead early in the 2nd half, however, the Cardinals defense was strong late and was able to take the lead for good after a Noah Locke three-pointer with 1:17 left in regulation. Louisville shot 49.1% from the field & 38.1% from beyond the arc while allowing Detroit Mercy to shoot 40.7% from the field & 36.0% from beyond the arc. Louisville lost the turnover battle by a 15-13 margin, however, outrebounded the Titans by a 37-33 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Cardinals was Dre Davis who had 18 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, & 2 steals.

On the season, Louisville is averaging 73.5 ppg on 44.8% shooting from the field. The Cardinals are averaging 8.0 three-pointers per game on 31.4% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Louisville has been led by Noah Locke (16.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg), Matt Cross (9.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.3 spg), Jarrod West (7.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.3 spg), & Malik Williams (6.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.3 bpg).

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Defensively, Louisville is allowing their opponents to average 66.8 ppg on 38.1% shooting from the field. The Cardinals have a rebound margin of 2.8 and a turnover margin of 0.2.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs improved to 4-0 on the season after defeating the Morehead State Eagles, 66-46, this past Sunday. Mississippi State was outstanding defensively in the 2nd half and was able to pull away after taking a 55-41 lead with 6:37 left in regulation. Mississippi State shot 49.2% from the field & 38.5% from beyond the arc while allowing Morehead State to shoot 33.3% from the field & 32.0% from beyond the arc. Mississippi State lost the turnover battle by a 14-13, however, outrebounded Morehead State by a 44-21 margin. Leading the way for the Bulldogs was Iverson Molinar who had 15 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, & 2 steals.

On the season, Mississippi State is averaging 76.0 ppg on 52.0% shooting from the field. The Bulldogs are averaging 8.0 three-pointers per game on 45.7% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Mississippi State has been led by Iverson Molinar (15.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 5.3 apg), Shakeel Moore (13.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 3.0 spg), Garrison Brooks (11.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg), & D.J. Jeffries (11.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.0 spg).

Defensively, Mississippi State is holding their opponents to an average of 52.0 ppg on 34.2% shooting from the field. The Bulldogs have a rebound margin of 13.2 and a turnover margin of 1.8.

The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall & 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, however, are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.

Louisville picked up some decent wins against Navy & Detroit Mercy after losing at home against Furman, however, I just don’t this is a great Cardinals team as the offensive still seems lack-luster while the defense hasn’t been as dominant as we’ve seen in recent years. Mississippi State hasn’t played much in competition to date, however, this is still a defense that ranks 7th in scoring defense and has shot the ball well as they currently rank 14th in FG% & 3rd in 3P-FG%. I think Mississippi State is the better team in this one and as I think their defense is going to give Louisville a bunch of trouble, I’m taking the Bulldogs to cover this small spread.

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Brett’s Pick Mississippi State Bulldogs -1

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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