Arkansas at Baylor: 3/29/21 College Basketball Picks and Prediction

Arkansas at Baylor: 3/29/21 College Basketball Picks and Prediction Photo by IndyStar-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor Bears (25-2) vs Arkansas Razorbacks (25-6)

Game Info: Monday, March 29, 2021 at 9:57 pm (Lucas Oil Stadium)

Betting Odds: Baylor Bears -6 -- Over/Under: 150 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Arkansas Razorbacks and Baylor Bears will square off at Lucas Oil Stadium in the Elite 8 of the NCAA Championship this Monday night.

The 3-seed Arkansas Razorbacks (25-6) was able to advance to the Elite 8 after defeating the 15-seed Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, 72-70, this past Saturday night. Arkansas had all they could handle from the upset-minded Golden Eagles and trailed by a 35-28 margin at halftime, however, Arkansas was finally able to get their offense going in the 2nd half and was able to win the game on a Davonte Davis jumper with just 2.9 seconds left in regulation. Arkansas shot 37.7% from the field and 11.1% from beyond the arc while Oral Roberts shot 42.6% from the field and 25.8% from beyond the arc. Arkansas outrebounded Oral Roberts by a 46-35 margin and won the turnover battle by a 13-10 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Razorbacks was Jalen Tate who had 22 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, & 1 steal.

On the season, Arkansas is averaging 81.7 ppg on 45.1% shooting from the field. The Razorbacks are averaging 7.4 three-pointers per game on 33.3% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Arkansas has been led by Moses Moddy (17.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.1 spg), Justin Smith (13.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.2 spg), JD Notae (12.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.5 spg), & Jalen Tate (10.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.1 spg).

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Defensively, Arkansas is allowing their opponents to average 70.4 ppg on 41.3% shooting from the field. The Razorbacks have a rebound margin of 3.9 and a turnover margin of 2.5.

The 1-seed Baylor Bears (25-2) was able to advance to the Elite 8 after defeating the 5-seed Villanova Wildcats, 62-51, this past Saturday. Baylor struggled in the 1st half against Villanova and trailed by a 30-23 margin at halftime, however, the Bears dominated the Wildcats on both ends of the court in the 2nd half and pulled away after taking a 54-45 lead with 3:20 left in regulation. Baylor shot 44.1% from the field and 15.8% from beyond the arc while Villanova shot 43.5% from the field and 17.6% from beyond the arc. Baylor won the turnover battle by a 16-6 margin which both the Bears and Wildcats pulled down 31 rebounds each. Leading the way for the Bears was Adam Flagler who had 16 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, & 1 steal in 24 minutes from off the bench.

On the season, Baylor is averaging 83.0 ppg on 48.6% shooting from the field. The Bears are averaging 10.0 three-pointers per game on 40.8% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Baylor has been led by Jared Butler (16.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.7 apg, 2.1 spg), MaCio Teague (15.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.6 apg), Davion Mitchell (14.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 5.3 apg, 2.0 spg), & Adam Flagler (9.0 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.4 apg).

Defensively, Baylor is holding their opponents to an average of 65.3 ppg on 43.1% shooting from the field. The Bears have a rebound margin of 4.1 and a turnover margin of 5.6.

The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Arkansas has had a great season, led by an offense that ranks 11th in scoring offense, however, I cannot say I have been impressed by the Razorbacks so far this tournament as they have had one of the easiest roads to the Elite 8 in recent memory. Baylor is a solid team on both ends of the court as they rank 6th and scoring offense & 49th in scoring defense, as I do not expect Arkansas to be able to fight back after another slow start, I think Baylor pulls away in the 2nd half and cover this large spread. Good Luck!

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Brett’s Pick Baylor Bears -6

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

Baylor vs Arkansas 3/29/21 Free College Basketball Pick and Prediction NCAA Tournament Elite 8

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