Nevada at San Diego State: 3/12/21 College Basketball Picks and Prediction

Nevada at San Diego State: 3/12/21 College Basketball Picks and Prediction Photo by Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego State Aztecs (21-4) vs Nevada Wolf Pack (16-9)

Game Info: Friday, March 12, 2021 at 9:30 pm (Thomas & Mack Center)

Betting Odds: San Diego State Aztecs -8.5 -- Over/Under: 139 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Nevada Wolf Pack and 19th ranked San Diego State Aztecs will square off at the Thomas & Mack Center in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Championship this Friday night.

The 5-seed Nevada Wolf Pack (16-9) was able to advance to the Semifinals of the Mountain West Championship after defeating the 4-seed Boise State Broncos, 89-82, on Thursday. Nevada was outstanding on the offensive end against Boise State and was able to hold off the Broncos after taking a 66-56 lead with 10:17 left in regulation. Nevada shot 50.8% from the field and 50.0% from beyond the arc while Boise State shot 51.0% from the field and 38.9% from beyond the arc. Nevada lost the turnover battle by a 13-12 margin, however, outrebounded Boise State by a 37-30 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Wolf Pack was Desmond Cambridge Jr. who had 31 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks, & 2 steals.

Coming into their game against Boise State, Nevada was averaging 73.2 ppg on 44.8% shooting from the field. The Wolf Pack were averaging 7.8 three-pointers per game on 35.4% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Nevada had been led by Grant Sherfield (18.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 6.2 apg, 1.6 spg), Desmond Cambridge Jr. (15.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.0 spg), Warren Washington (9.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg), & Tre Coleman (5.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.6 apg).

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Defensively, Nevada was allowing their opponents to average 68.9 ppg on 40.3% shooting from the field. The Wolf Pack had a rebound margin of 1.0 and a turnover margin of -0.0.

The 1-seed San Diego State Aztecs (21-4) was able to advance to the Semifinals of the Mountain West Championship after defeating the 8-seed Wyoming Cowboys, 69-66, on Thursday. San Diego State had all they could handle from Wyoming in a tight back-and-forth game in the 2nd half, however, the Aztecs were able to hold on for the victory after the Cowboys Marcus Williams missed a game-tying three-pointer for the Cowboys as time expired. San Diego State shot 49.0% from the field and 35.0% from beyond the arc while Wyoming shot 44.4% from the field and 48.0% from beyond the arc. San Diego Aztecs was outrebounded by Wyoming by a 28-26 margin, however, won the turnover battle by a 11-6 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Aztecs was Terrell Gomez who had 20 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, & 2 steals.

Coming into their game against Wyoming, San Diego Aztecs was averaging 74.4 ppg on 45.4% shooting from the field. The Aztecs were averaging 8.8 three-pointers per game on 38.0% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, San Diego State had been led by Matt Mitchell (15.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.5 spg), Jordan Schakel (14.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.1 spg), Terrell Gomez (8.3 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 2.4 apg), & Trey Pulliam (6.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.2 spg).

Defensively, San Diego State was holding their opponents to an average of 60.1 ppg on 38.7% shooting from the field. The Aztecs had a rebound margin of 4.8 and a turnover margin of 3.6.

The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall. The Aztecs are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 Friday games, however, are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. 

Nevada looked outstanding against a very good Boise State team on Thursday and despite losing both games at San Diego State earlier this season, the Wolf Pack were competitive against the Aztecs and covered ATS in both. San Diego State has an outstanding defense, however, it was a bit concerning to see the Aztecs offense struggle against a below average Wyoming defense. Nevada has been solid on both ends of the court, especially defensively as the Wolf Pack ranks 28th in defensive FG%, and as I imagine the Wolf Pack will be getting a few points in this one, I am initially leaning towards taking Nevada. Please check back when the line has been released for my official pick.

Update (3/11 - 9:21 PM) - This line is actually a bit higher than I expected and I'm sticking with my initial thoughts that Nevada and the points are the play here. Good Luck!

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Brett’s Pick Nevada Wolfpack +8.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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