Duke at Louisville: 3/10/21 College Basketball Picks and Prediction
Photo by Courier Journal-USA TODAY Sports
Louisville Cardinals (13-6) vs Duke Blue Devils (12-11)
Game Info: Wednesday, March 10, 2021 at 6:30 pm (Greensboro Coliseum)
Betting Odds: Louisville Cardinals +1.5 -- Over/Under: 141 Click Here for the Latest Odds
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The Duke Blue Devils and Louisville Cardinals will square off at Greensboro Coliseum in the 2nd round of the ACC Tournament this Thursday night.
The Duke Blue Devils finished their regular season with an overall record of 11-11 and earned the 10-seed in the ACC Championship after finishing conference play with a 9-9 record. Duke was able to advance out of the 1st round after defeating the 15-seed Boston College Eagles, 86-51, on Tuesday night. Duke dominated Boston College on both ends of the court and had no trouble securing the victory after going into halftime with a 41-27 lead. Duke shot 52.5% from the field and 46.9% from beyond the arc while Boston College shot 39.1% from the field and 6.7% from beyond the arc. Duke outrebounded Boston College by a 33-30 margin and won the turnover battle by a 20-12 margin. Leading the way for the Blue Devils was DJ Steward who had 17 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, & 1 block.
On the season, Duke is averaging 76.3 ppg on 46.9% shooting from the field. The Blue Devils are averaging 8.5 three-pointers per game on 35.1% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Duke has been led by Matthew Hurt (18.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.5 apg), DJ Steward (13.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.0 spg), Wendell Moore Jr. (9.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.3 spg).
Defensively, Duke is allowing their opponents to average 72.0 ppg on 46.2% shooting from the field. The Blue Devils have a rebound margin of 1.7 and a turnover margin of 1.2.
The Louisville Cardinals finished their regular season with an overall record of 13-6 and earned the 7-seed in the ACC Championship after finishing conference play with an 8-5 record. Louisville was led by their defense this season which comes into the ACC Championship ranked 67th in scoring defense & 36th in rebound margin, however, the Cardinals offense did struggle a bit as it currently ranks just 245th in scoring offense & 324th in three-pointers made per game. Louisville got off to a strong start to the season, winning 9 of their first 10 games with wins over Seton Hall & Virginia Tech, however, the Cardinals struggled a bit down the stretch, losing 5 of their last 9 games with a bad loss against Miami.
On the season, Louisville is averaging 68.6 ppg on 43.8% shooting from the field. The Cardinals are averaging 5.3 three-pointers per game on 31.1 shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Louisville has been led by Carlik Jones (17.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.6 apg, 1.4 spg), David Johnson (12.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.1 spg), Jae’Lyn Withers (10.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg), & Samuell Williamson (9.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.2 apg).
Defensively, Louisville is holding their opponents to an average of 66.3 ppg on 42.1% shooting from the field. The Cardinals have a rebound margin of 5.2 and a turnover margin of -0.5.
The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 gams as a favorite, however, are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Duke looked solid against Boston College, however, this is a team that just really has underperformed all season and has really struggled on the defensive end this season. Louisville struggled a bit down the stretch, however, the Cardinals were able to defeat the Blue Devils twice this season, including a recent OT victory at Duke in late February. Duke will always be a favorite with the public due to their popularity, but I just do not think they should be favored in this one and I think the play here is to take the Cardinals and the points. Good Luck!