Appalachian State at Texas State - 3/11/20 College Basketball Picks and Prediction

Appalachian State  at Texas State  - 3/11/20 College Basketball Picks and Prediction Photo by Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Appalachian State Mountaineers (18-14) at Texas State Bobcats (20-11)

College Basketball: Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 8:00 pm (Strahan Coliseum)

The Line: Texas State Bobcats -7.5 -- Over/Under: 129.0

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The Appalachian State Mountaineers are set to battle the Texas State Bobcats in the Sun Belt Quarterfinals.  The Mountaineers are (18-14), coming off a 70-65 win over Coastal Carolina. The Bobcats are (20-11), after falling to South Alabama to end the regular season, 58-54.

In the Mountaineers win over Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State was guided throughout the game by Isaac Johnson.  Johnson recorded a double-double, totaling 24 points and 10 rebounds. The Mountaineers converted on 42 percent from the floor and 20 percent from 3-point distance.  Appalachian State won the game from the foul line, out scoring Coastal Carolina 22 to 5. The Mountaineers had the chance to pull away even further, but made just 58 percent from the charity stripe.  Appalachian State trailed 37-22 at the half. 

The Mountaineers have been led this season by Justin Forrest.  Forrest is averaging 17.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game.  O’Showen Williams is connecting on 12.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per contest.  Appalachian State is averaging 68.4 points per game, while shooting 43 percent from the floor. 

In the Bobcats loss to South Alabama, Texas State was led offensively by Mason Harrell.  Harrell recorded 13 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists. Texas State connected on 43 percent from the floor and 27 percent from deep.  The Bobcats attempted 22 3-pointers out of their 49 shot attempts from the floor. Texas State allowed South Alabama to shoot 45 percent from the floor.  The Bobcats committed 11 turnovers in the game.

The Bobcats have been carried offensively by Nijal Pearson.  Pearson is recording 19.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game.  Harrell is contributing 9.1 points and 3 assists per contest. Texas State is averaging 72.7 points, while shooting 32.5 percent from deep.

Recent Betting Trends:

Appalachian State is 8-4 SU in their last 12 games.

Appalachian State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Texas State.

The under is 7-2 in Appalachian State’s last 9 games.

Texas State is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.

Texas State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in March.

The under is 8-4 in Texas State’s last 12 games.

These two teams played each other twice in the regular season, with the teams splitting the two games.  Texas State is averaging over 72 points per game, while Appalachian State is allowing less than 67 points per game.  The Bobcats have one of the better defenses in the country, ranking 41st, allowing just over 64 per contest. A good defense does not bode well for Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers have struggled to shoot the ball, ranking 214th in field goal percent, 311th in 3-point offense, and 309th in foul shooting. I’ll side with the Bobcats to get it done on defense.  Final score prediction, Texas State will win and Appalachian State will cover against the spread, 73-67.   

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Chris’s Pick Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.