St. Mary's vs. Pepperdine - 3/8/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Pepperdine Waves (16-15) at St. Mary's Gaels (23-7)
College Basketball: Sunday, March 8, 2020 at 12:30 am (Orleans Arena)
The Line: St. Mary's Gaels -6.5 -- Over/Under: 147
The Pepperdine Waves (16-15, 9-8 WCC) and the Saint Mary’s Gaels (24-7, 11-5 WCC) meet in Las Vegas, NV for a West Coast Conference Tournament Quarterfinal game at Orleans Arena. The last time these teams played on January 18, Saint Mary’s defeated Pepperdine 78-69 as a 6 ½-point road favorite.
Pepperdine is 5-5 straight up and 5-4-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. Pepperdine is 9-8 straight up and 9-7-1 against the spread in conference games. Pepperdine has scored 76.1 points per game and allowed 76.7 points per game to opponents, and the Waves have shot 434% from the field, 34.7% from 3 and 79.1% from the free-throw line this season.
Pepperdine has lost 3 of its last 5 games, but the Waves won their last game against Santa Clara 84-73 as a 3-point favorite in the WCC 1st Round. Pepperdine is ranked 141st by KenPom, with the 85th ranked offense and 233rd ranked defense in the country. Pepperdine is led by Junior guard Colbey Ross, who averages 19.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game, and Senior forward Kameron Edwards, who averages 16.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.
Saint Mary’s is 7-3 straight up and 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games. Saint Mary’s is 11-5 straight up and 8-8 against the spread in conference games. Saint Mary’s has scored 74.9 points per game and surrendered 66.8 points per game to opponents, and the Gaels have shot 47.6% from the field, 39.3% from 3 and 75.4% from the free-throw line this season.
Saint Mary’s has won 4 of its last 5 games, but the Gaels lost their last game to rival Gonzaga 76-86 as a 13 ½-point road underdog. Saint Mary’s is ranked 34th by KenPom, with the 9th ranked offense and 111th ranked defense in the country. Saint Mary’s is led by Senior guard Jordan Ford, who averages 21.2 points, 3 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, and Junior forward Malik Fitts, who averages 16.9 points and 7.1 rebounds per game.
Saint Mary’s is 8-2 straight up and 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games against Pepperdine, and the over is 5-5 during that stretch. The over is 5-5 in the last 10 games for Pepperdine and 8-2 in the last 10 for Saint Mary’s.
Saint Mary’s is the better team and should win this game, but the Waves have been competitive against the Gaels historically. With their season on the line I think the Waves can cover this spread and perhaps even steal this game outright. Give me Pepperdine and the points.