South Florida vs. Southern Methodist - 3/7/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Southern Methodist Mustangs (19-10) at South Florida Bulls (13-17)
College Basketball: Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 7:00 pm (Yuengling Center)
The Line: South Florida Bulls +1 -- Over/Under: 128.5
The SMU Mustangs (19-10, 9-10 American) travel to Tampa, FL to take on the South Florida Bulls (13-17, 6-11 American) in an American Athletic Conference match-up at the Yuengling Center. The last time these teams played on January 1, SMU beat South Florida 82-64 as an 8 ½-point home favorite.
SMU is 4-6 straight up and 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games. SMU is 1-7 both straight up and against the spread in conference road games this season. On the road, SMU has scored 69.3 points per game and allows 73.9 points per game to opponents, and the Mustangs have shot 41.4% from the field, 29.1% from 3 and 76.3% from the free-throw line in those games.
SMU has lost 4 of its last 5 games, and the Mustangs were beaten 58-61 by Central Florida as a 1-point road favorite in their last game. SMU is ranked 89th by KenPom, with the 23rd ranked offense and 221st ranked defense in the country. SMU is led by Junior guard Tyson Jolly, who averages 14.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game, Junior forward Isiaha Mike, who averages 14.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game, and Sophomore guard Kendric Davis, who averages 14.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game.
South Florida is 5-5 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. South Florida is 3-5 both straight up and against the spread in conference road games this season. At home, South Florida has scored 62.4 points per game and surrenders 59.7 points per game to opponents, and the Bulls have shot 40.1% from the field, 33.3% from 3 and 64% from the free-throw line in those games.
South Florida has lost 5 of its last 7 games, and the Bulls were defeated by Cincinnati 67-79 as a 3-point home underdog in their last game. South Florida is ranked 125th by KenPom, with the 204th ranked offense and 69th ranked defense in the nation. South Florida is led by Junior guard David Collins, who averages 13.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game, and Senior guard Laquincy Rideau, who averages 12.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game.
SMU is 8-2 straight up and 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 match-ups versus South Florida, and the under is 6-4 during that stretch. The over is 6-4 in the last 10 games for SMU and the under is 4-6 in the last 10 for South Florida.
SMU has really struggled lately, and they have been bad on the road all season. South Florida hasn’t looked much better lately, but on Senior Night in this spot I’ve got to go with the home team. I’ll take the slight underdog and roll with the Bulls.