Mississippi State vs. Mississippi - 3/7/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Mississippi State vs. Mississippi - 3/7/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Mississippi Rebels (15-15) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (19-11)

College Basketball: Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 6:30 pm (Humphrey Coliseum)

The Line: Mississippi State Bulldogs -5 -- Over/Under: 141.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Mississippi Rebels (15-15, 6-11 SEC) travel to Starkville, MS to face the rival Mississippi State Bulldogs (19-11, 10-7 SEC) in an SEC showdown at Humphrey Coliseum. The last time these teams played on February 11, Mississippi crushed Mississippi State 83-58 as a 1-point home underdog.

Mississippi is 5-5 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games. Mississippi is 1-7 straight up and 3-5 against the spread in conference road games this season. On the road, Mississippi has scored 60.2 points per game and allows 70.8 points per game to opponents, and the Rebels have shot 36.5% from the field, 28.4% from 3 and 74.7% from the free-throw line in those games.

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Mississippi has lost 4 of its late 6 games, but the Rebels won their last game over Missouri 75-67 as a 4 ½-point home favorite. Mississippi is ranked 91st by KenPom, with the 139th ranked offense and 70th ranked defense in the country.  Mississippi is led by Senior guard Breein Tyree, who averages 20 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game, and Sophomore forward KJ Buffen, who averages 10.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game.

Mississippis State is 6-4 straight up and 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games. Mississippi State is 7-1 straight up and 5-3 against the spread in conference home games this season. At home, Mississippi State has scored 75.3 points per game and surrenders 66.1 points per game to opponents, and the Bulldogs have shot 48% from the field, 32.4% from 3 and 74.9% from the free-throw line in those games.

Mississippi State has won 4 of its last 6 games, and the Bulldogs lost in their last game to South Carolina 71-83 as a 2-point road underdog. Mississippi State is led by Sophomore forward Reggie Perry, who averages 17.2 points,9.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, and Senior guard Robert Woodard, who averages 11.4 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game.

Mississippi is 7-3 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 match-ups with Mississippi State, and the over is 6-4 during that stretch. The over is 6-4 in the last 10 games for Mississippi and 8-2 in the last 10 for Mississippi State.

This is a rivalry game and those tend to be a little wonky at any time, much less in the season finale for both teams. Mississippi State is firmly on the tournament bubble right now and absolutely has to have this win at home, so I’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs.

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Erik’s Pick Mississippi State -5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.