Duke vs. North Carolina - 3/7/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Duke vs. North Carolina - 3/7/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina Tar Heels (13-17) at Duke Blue Devils (24-6)

College Basketball: Saturday, March 7, 2020 at 6:00 pm (Cameron Indoor Stadium)

The Line: Duke Blue Devils -12 -- Over/Under: 152

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The North Carolina Tar Heels (13-17, 6-13 ACC) travel to Durham, NC to face the Duke Blue Devils (24-6, 14-5 ACC) in an Atlantic Coast Conference rivalry game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The last time these teams played, Duke came back from down double digits with less than 2 minutes left and won in double overtime 98-96 as a 7 ½-point road favorite.

North Carolina is 3-7 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games. North Carolina is 2-7 straight up and 5-4 against the spread in conference road games this season. On the road, North Carolina has scored 69.5 points per game and allowed 71.5 points per game to opponents, and the Tar Heels have shot 40.4% from the field, 29.2% from 3 and 69.5% from the free-throw line in those games.

North Carolina has won 3 straight after snapping a 7-game losing streak, and the Tar Heels won their last game 93-83 as 8-point home favorites against Wake Forest. North Carolina is ranked 85th by KenPom, with the 76th ranked offense and 91st ranked defense in the country. North Carolina is led by Junior forward Garrison Brooks, who averages 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game, and Freshman guard Cole Anthony, who averages 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game.

Duke is 7-3 straight up and 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games. Duke is 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread in conference home games this season. At home, Duke has scored 83.5 points per game and surrendered 63.6 points per game to opponents, and the Blue Devils have shot 47.7% from the field, 36.8% from 3 and 70% from the free-throw line in those games. 

Duke has lost 3 of its last 5 games, and the Blue Devils won their last game 88-69 as 12-point home favorites over North Carolina State. Duke is ranked 6th by KenPom, with the 10th ranked offense and 9th ranked defense in the nation. Duke is led by Freshman center Vernon Carey Jr., who averages 17.6 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, and Sophomore guard Tre Jones, who averages 16.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game.

North Carolina is 5-5 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against Duke, and the under is 6-4 during that stretch. The over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 games for North Carolina and 7-3 in the last 10 games for Duke.

The last game had all the drama and insanity of a legendary Duke-North Carolina game, and I think this game has the potential to have more of the same. It’s a revenge game for North Carolina, and I have to fade the Blue Devils here when they’re laying this many points in a game that’s traditionally always close no matter the records of the teams. I’ll take the Tar Heels and the points.

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Erik’s Pick North Carolina +12

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.