Miami vs. Virginia - 3/4/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Miami vs. Virginia - 3/4/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Virginia Cavaliers (21-7) at Miami Hurricanes (14-14)

College Basketball: Wednesday, March 4, 2020 at 9:00 pm (Watsco Center)

The Line: Miami Hurricanes +1.5 -- Over/Under: 118 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Virginia Cavaliers (21-7, 13-5 ACC) travel to Miami, FL to face the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (14-14, 6-12 ACC) in an Atlantic Coast Conference showdown at the Watsco Center. The last time these teams met on February 2, 2019, Virginia defeated Miami 56-46 as 18-point home favorites.

Virginia is 9-1 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread in their last 10 games. Virginia is 6-3 straight up and 6-2-1 against the spread in conference road games this year. Virginia averages 56.3 points per game and allows 57.6 points per game in road games this year, and they shoot 41.8% from the field, 28.6% from 3 and 70.5% from the free-throw line in those games.

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Virginia has won 6 in a row and 9 of their last 10 games, and they won their last game against Duke 52-50 as 3-point home underdogs. Virginia is ranked 45th by KenPom, with the 220th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense in the country. Virginia is led by Senior forward Mamadi Diakite, who averages 13.6 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, and Sophomore guard Kihei Clark, who averages 10.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6 assists per game.

Miami is 4-6 straight up and 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games. Miami is 4-4 straight up and 5-3 against the spread in conference home games this season. Miami averages 76.1 points per game and surrenders 69.4 points per game to opponents in home games this year, and they have shot 46.3% from the field, 36.8% from 3 and 71.3% from the free-throw line in those games.

Miami had lost 7 of 8 before going on a 3-game winning streak, but that has since ended with two consecutive losses. Miami was defeated by Georgia Tech 57-63 as 5 ½-point road underdogs in their last contest. Miami is ranked 106th by KenPom, with the 65th ranked offense and 177th ranked defense in the nation. Miami scores by committee, with three guards who average double-digit scoring, but the Hurricanes are led by Junior guard Chris Lykes, who averages 15.2 points, 2.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.

Virginia is 7-3 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games heads-up against Miami, and the under is 8-2 during that stretch. The over is 6-4 in the last 10 games for both Miami and Virginia.

Virginia has been rolling lately, and I expect them to keep the momentum going after their big home win against Duke (although beating Duke at home is looking less impressive by the day). There’s an old sports adage that says that defense travels, and that will prove true Wednesday night when Virginia heads to Miami. Give me the Cavaliers in another one of the plodding, low-scoring games that has become their trademark.

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Erik’s Pick Virginia -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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