Troy vs. Texas-Arlington - 3/3/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

UT-Arlington just concluded a 5-game homestand, going 3-2 in those games but losing the last two as favorites to Appalachian State and South Alabama. UT-Arlington is ranked 127th by KenPom, with the 185th ranked offense and 90th ranked defense in the nation. UT-Arlington is led by Sophomore guard David Azore, who averages 14.2 points per game, 5 rebounds per game and 3.7 assists per game, and Senior guard Brian Warren, who averages 12.6 points and 3.6 assists per game. 

Troy has lost 9 of its last 10 games and has gone just 2-7-1 against the spread in that stretch. Troy is 3-6 straight up and 3-5-1 against the spread in conference games at home this season. Troy averages 74.1 points per game and gives up 69.5 points per game to opponents in games played at Trojan Arena. Troy is shooting 41.7% from the field, 34.6% from 3 and 67% from the free-throw line in home games this year.

Troy has lost 3 consecutive home games by a combined 11 points and 3 consecutive road games by a combined 54 points. Troy lost its last game 63-78 as 9-point road underdogs to South Alabama. Troy is ranked 284th by KenPom, with the 290th ranked offense and 251st ranked defense in the country. Troy is led by Freshman guard Ty Gordon, who averages 12.4 points, 3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game, and Junior guard Darian Adams, who averages 12.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game.

UT-Arlington is 7-3 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games against Troy. In those games, the under is 6-4. In the last 10 games for UT-Arlington, the under has gone 6-4, and the under is 5-5 in the last 10 games for Troy. 

Troy has been close in its last 3 home games, and after being clobbered in their last 3 road games, I think they’ll try their best to close out the season on a high note with a home victory. I don’t expect them to win the game outright, but they’ll keep it close enough to cover the spread.