South Alabama vs. Troy - 2/29/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Troy has gone 3-12 on the road this year straight up and 6-9 against the spread overall, but they are 2-1 against the spread in their last 3 road games. Troy is ranked 284th by KenPom, with the 289th ranked offense and the 248th ranked defense. They are led by a balanced offensive attack, with 4 players who average between 10-13 points per game and no player who averages more than 5.5 rebounds per game or 3.3 assists per game on the roster.

South Alabama has reeled off 6 consecutive victories and is undefeated in the month of February since suffering a 3-game losing streak by a combined 9 points at the end of January. South Alabama is 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games and has covered in 2 straight. South Alabama is outscoring opponents by 2.6 points per game in their last 10 games, and 4.8 points per game during their 6-game winning streak.

South Alabama is 8-4 at home this year, but just 4-8 against the spread, and they have kept up that trend going 4-2 straight up and 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 home games. They have played a ton of close games lately, with 7 of their previous 9 games being decided by 4 points or fewer. South Alabama is ranked 167th by KenPom, with the 138th ranked offense and 225th ranked defense in the country. Senior forward Josh Ajayi leads four Jaguars who average double-digit scoring with 15.5 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per game with a 58.6 eFG%. 

The home team is 3-6-1 against the spread in the last 10 matchups between these teams, and Troy is 5-4-1 against the spread against South Alabama in that stretch. The under is 6-4 in the last 10 games for Troy, and the over is 7-3 in the last 10 for South Alabama. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 match-ups between these programs.

I see no reason to believe Troy can hang with South Alabama on the road. I’ll lay the points with the Jaguars and take the under, too.