Murray State vs. Austin Peay - 2/29/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Murray State vs. Austin Peay - 2/29/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Austin Peay Governors (20-10) at Murray State Racers (21-8)

College Basketball: Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 8:00 pm (CFSB Center)

The Line: Murray State Racers -4 -- Over/Under: 142.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Austin Peay Governors (20-10, 14-3 OVC) travel to Murray, Kentucky to take on the Murray State Racers (21-8, 14-3 OVC) in an Ohio Valley Conference matchup at the CFSB Center to decide 1st place in the conference. The last time these two teams played, Austin Peay won 71-68 at home as a 3-point favorite over Murray State.

Austin Peay is 7-3 in their last 10 games, but just 3-7 against the spread in that stretch and only 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games. Austin Peay is 5-3 straight up and against the spread in their last 8 games away from home, but is just 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 road games. Austin Peay has outscored opponents by 3.3 points per game in their last 10 games.

Austin Peay is undefeated at home this season, but is just 5-10 on the road. However, Austin Peay has managed to cover the number when they’ve been on the road, going 8-6-1 against the spread. Austin Peay is ranked 160th by KenPom, with the 62nd ranked offense and the 281st ranked defense. Austin Peay is led by Junior guard Terry Taylor, who averages 21.8 points per game and 10.9 rebounds per game with a 59.4 eFG%, and Freshman guard Jordyn Adams who contributes 17.5 points per game.

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Murray State has won their last 2 games after a historical collapse in the final 11 minutes at Eastern Illinois, letting a 27-point lead evaporate and losing by 3. Murray State is 7-3 straight up and 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games. The Racers are 6-0 and 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games at the CFSB Center and have outscored opponents by 7.0 points per game in their last 10 games.

Murray State is 14-1 at home this year and a robust 10-3-1 against the spread. They almost always win at home and Murray State tends to cover the number more often than not. Murray State is ranked 143rd by KenPom, with the 181st ranked offense and 127th ranked defense in the nation. Murray State is led by Sophomore guard Tevin Brown, who averages 17.8 points per game, 4.8 rebounds per game and 3.6 assists per game with a 55.9 eFG%.

The home team is 5-4-1 against the spread the last 10 times these teams have met, with Murray State going 7-2-1 against the spread and 4-1 against the spread at home in that stretch. The under is 9-1 in Murray State’s last 10 games and 7-3 in the last 10 for Austin Peay. 

The loss to Eastern Illinois is the type of game that can send a good season spiraling out of control, but Murray State regrouped to come back and beat SIU-Edwardsville in the final minutes on the road in their next game to reestablish their confidence. I’d feel comfortable parlaying Murray State laying the points and the under in this spot, but I’ll just stick with the trends and take the under in this match-up.

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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