Cal Poly vs. UC Davis - 2/20/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Cal Poly vs. UC Davis - 2/20/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

UC Davis Aggies (12-15) at Cal Poly Mustangs (7-18)

College Basketball: Thursday, February 20, 2020 at 10:00 pm (Robert A. Mott Gym)

The Line: Cal Poly Mustangs +2.5 -- Over/Under: 148 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The UC Davis Aggies have won three games in a row, improving to 12-15 (6-5 Big West) after defeating the CSU Northridge Matadors, 110-98, this past Saturday.  The Aggies led most of the game, taking a 47-41 lead into halftime.  UC Davis continued to roll in the second half, stretching their lead to 85-70 with 7:28 left in regulation on their way to the victory.  The Aggies shot 59.3% from the field and a whopping 60.0% from three-point range.  Joe Mooney led the way with 29 points, 4 assists, 2 rebounds and steal off the bench.

On the season, the UC Davis Aggies are averaging 73.9 ppg on 46.4% shooting from the field.  The Aggies are also averaging 8.1 three-pointers per game on 39.3% shooting from beyond the arc.  The offensive leaders for UC Davis this season are Joe Mooney (13.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.4 apg), Ezra Manjon (12.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.1 apg) and Stefan Gonzalez (10.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.0 apg).

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Defensively, UC Davis is allowing their opponents to average 72.0 ppg on 45.9% shooting from the field.  The Aggies 6 steals per game is helping them to a turnover margin of 1.3 on the season.

The Cal Poly Mustangs have lost two in a row, dropping to 7-18( 4-7 Big West) after being defeated 105-101 by the Cal State Fullerton Titans this past Saturday in a heartbreaker.  The game was tight throughout, needing extra time to decide the outcome.  The Titans were able to maintain a slight lead in OT opening up a four-point margin with just 23 seconds in regulation and held on for the victory.  The Mustangs shot 44.0% from the field and 28.6% from three-point range.  Nolan Taylor led the way for Cal Poly, scoring 35 points to go along with 9 rebounds and an assist off the bench.

On the season, the Cal Poly Mustangs are averaging 68.0 ppg on 42.4% shooting from the field.  The Mustangs are also netting 6.5 three-pointers per game on 34.2% shooting from beyond the arc.  Offensively, Cal Poly has been led by Junior Ballard (13.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.0 apg), the only player on the team averaging double figure scoring.

Defensively, Cal Poly is allowing their opponents to score an average of 75.0 ppg on 44.7% shooting from the field. The Mustangs have a rebound margin of -4.5 and a turnover margin of -0.5, highlighting how tough a season it has been for Cal Poly.

UC Davis is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and an impressive 11-3 ATS on the road this season.  The Aggies shoot extremely well beyond the arc and that 39.3% is good for 6th in the country.  They also make you pay for fouls as they also rank 6th in the country with a 78.5% free-throw mark.  Cal Poly is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games but 1-7 SU in their last 7 Thursday games.  The Mustangs scoring defense is a meager 305th in the country and their -4.7 rebound margin ranks 327th.

Although Cal Poly is a much better team at home, where all seven of their wins have come, I just don’t see the Mustangs holding off the strong shooting Aggies from reaching the low cover.  Coming off the tough overtime loss to Cal State Fullerton, I don’t think the Mustangs have it in them to push UC Davis as well so I’m taking the Aggies to cover the low spread on the road. 

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David’s Pick UC Davis Aggies -2.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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