Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State - 2/11/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

The Ole Miss Rebels will look to build on back-to-back wins after a 68-51 win over Florida last time out. Breein Tyree led the Rebels with 23 points on 9 of 19 shooting with 4 threes while Devontae Shuler and KJ Buffen each had 14 points with Buffen logging a team-high 9 rebounds and 4 assists while Shuler dished out a team-high 5 assists with 3 steals. Tyree leads Ole Miss in scoring with 19 points per game while Shuler and Buffen are also averaging double-digits in the scoring column with Shuler leading the Rebels with 3.6 assists per game and Buffen is averaging 10 points with a team-high 6 rebounds per game. Blake Hinson is also scoring in double figures for Ole Miss on the year. As a team, Ole Miss is averaging 69.2 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field, 32.5% from behind the arc and 71.6% from the foul line while allowing just 67.4 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 29.7% from behind the arc this season.

Mississippi State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record while the over is 10-2 in their last 12 games following a win. Ole Miss is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

I get that Mississippi State has been the better team for much of the season, and the head-to-head trends can be hard to look into as there tends to be a lot of turnover from year-to-year in college ball. However, Mississippi State has lost 7 of their last 8 trips to play the Rebels at Ole Miss, and the Rebels have played their best ball at home, handily beating a pair of solid teams in Florida and South Carolina while also losing to Memphis, LSU and Auburn all by 4 points or less. I just think given Ole Miss’ recent run of form ATS, getting Ole Miss as a home dog in a rivalry game sounds good to me. Give me the Rebels here.